VBIN's oil stock thread.

[vbin]

(01-26-2021, 12:31 PM)EricL Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:00 PM)vbin Wrote: Soudis rig count could be a bad sign if they expect economy to still not have the pre-covid kind of demand ?

Or it could be a good sign because they don't have enough cash flow to run rigs...

The probability of that is very very low. I don't like this price so trying to understand more. Lol


What oil price are you targeting by this summer? XLE plunging today.

[EricL]

(01-26-2021, 03:02 PM)vbin Wrote: What oil price are you targeting by this summer? XLE plunging today.

I'm not targeting anything. Just giving data on why I'm not selling any of my energy shares, and think they are still worth holding long-term.

[fenders53]

(01-26-2021, 03:02 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:31 PM)EricL Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:00 PM)vbin Wrote: Soudis rig count could be a bad sign if they expect economy to still not have the pre-covid kind of demand ?

Or it could be a good sign because they don't have enough cash flow to run rigs...

The probability of that is very very low. I don't like this price so trying to understand more. Lol


What oil price are you targeting by this summer? XLE plunging today.

Just sold an XOM put.  Don't get too excited though.  I'm just hedging my debate with Eric.  He can say "I told ya", then I can tell him "yeah well I made some money."  Scroll back to post xxx 

Actually it's an attempt to swoop in and grab a dividend and the premium was decent.  Closest thing to a long move in oil for me in awhile.  My ENB shares and put sales aren't really an oil pay.  I've been waiting for oil to stabilize a bit, and XOM or RDS to pull back off the quick run they had. Truthfully RDS was my first choice but the dividend is garbage after the SP run. I need more than a 3.7% for my risk. I am never going to fell comfortable enough being long oil so XOM seems more rational to me. They should cut, but they won't if our collective view of the next few years is at all accurate.

If you want my guess on oil prices (and that is all it is). Won't stay above $60 for more than a few days by end of summer. $53-53 will be more "normal". I won't be even a little surprised if we dip to 45ish the next month or so. My thesis for any prayer of oil at $60 is the world believes at least half of the first world countries will be 50% vaccinated by summer. That would of course be heavily weighted towards those at most risk to Covid. The fear of being vaxxed will slowly dissipate. That's a good thing for oil, and humanity in general.

[vbin]

(01-26-2021, 03:38 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 03:02 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:31 PM)EricL Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:00 PM)vbin Wrote: Soudis rig count could be a bad sign if they expect economy to still not have the pre-covid kind of demand ?

Or it could be a good sign because they don't have enough cash flow to run rigs...

The probability of that is very very low. I don't like this price so trying to understand more. Lol


What oil price are you targeting by this summer? XLE plunging today.

Just sold an XOM put.  Don't get too excited though.  I'm just hedging my debate with Eric.  He can say "I told ya", then I can tell him "yeah well I made some money."  Scroll back to post xxx 

Actually it's an attempt to swoop in and grab a dividend and the premium was decent.  Closest thing to a long move in oil for me in awhile.  My ENB shares and put sales aren't really an oil pay.  I've been waiting for oil to stabilize a bit, and XOM or RDS to pull back off the quick run they had. Truthfully RDS was my first choice but the dividend is garbage after the SP run. I need more than a 3.7% for my risk. I am never going to fell comfortable enough being long oil so XOM seems more rational to me. They should cut, but they won't if our collective view of the next few years is at all accurate.

If you want my guess on oil prices (and that is all it is). Won't stay above $60 for more than a few days by end of summer. $53-53 will be more "normal". I won't be even a little surprised if we dip to 45ish the next month or so. My thesis for any prayer of oil at $60 is the world believes at least half of the first world countries will be 50% vaccinated by summer. That would of course be heavily weighted towards those at most risk to Covid. The fear of being vaxxed will slowly dissipate. That's a good thing for oil, and humanity in general.

And I bought couple of leap calls for xle after selling puts.

[fenders53]

I'm not just a dirty oil short anymore lol. Kidding. I never shorted oil. I probably won't add unless we get an unforeseen dip though. It would take a lot to make me believe any particular oil stock has a safe future. In my perfect world I'll follow XOM down a bit for a few months and sell new puts. Or maybe just make $96 lol.

[EricL]

Huge 11.7M barrel weekly draw announced by EIA this morning.

Over 1M vaccines a day being administered already, with JNJ's one shot, no cold storage required vaccine likely being approved within the next week or so.

Half the US population will be vaccinated by spring. I expect demand to be back to normal this summer.

[vbin]

(01-27-2021, 11:31 AM)EricL Wrote: Huge 11.7M barrel weekly draw announced by EIA this morning.

Over 1M vaccines a day being administered already, with JNJ's one shot, no cold storage required vaccine likely being approved within the next week or so.

Half the US population will be vaccinated by spring. I expect demand to be back to normal this summer.

That's good news. Lol. I don't want to bet anymore big money on oil so I have leap calls on xle. It goes $55 I will be happy

[fenders53]

(01-27-2021, 12:13 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-27-2021, 11:31 AM)EricL Wrote: Huge 11.7M barrel weekly draw announced by EIA this morning.

Over 1M vaccines a day being administered already, with JNJ's one shot, no cold storage required vaccine likely being approved within the next week or so.

Half the US population will be vaccinated by spring. I expect demand to be back to normal this summer.

That's good news. Lol. I don't want to bet anymore big money on oil so I have leap calls on xle. It goes $55 I will be happy

Oil is going to the moon dood.  Just trying to get myself into the general mood lol.

[vbin]

(01-27-2021, 01:06 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-27-2021, 12:13 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-27-2021, 11:31 AM)EricL Wrote: Huge 11.7M barrel weekly draw announced by EIA this morning.

Over 1M vaccines a day being administered already, with JNJ's one shot, no cold storage required vaccine likely being approved within the next week or so.

Half the US population will be vaccinated by spring. I expect demand to be back to normal this summer.

That's good news. Lol. I don't want to bet anymore big money on oil so I have leap calls on xle. It goes $55 I will be happy

Oil is going to the moon dood.  Just trying to get myself into the general mood lol.

Are you serious, lol? This all market action is scary. No good news left for oil. Everyone knows economy opening up. Vaccine out.

[fenders53]

No I offered my wild guess prediction yesterday. It's going to be about actual supply demand balance. The bounce off the bottom is over.

[EricL]

Another bullish crude draw...

• The American Petroleum Institute reportedly shows a draw of 4.26M barrels of oil for the week ending Jan. 29.
  
  
• Gasoline inventories reportedly show a draw of 240K barrels, distillate inventories show a draw of 1.62M barrels and Cushing inventories show a draw of 1.88M barrels.
  
  
• Data to be released tomorrow from the Energy Information Administration is expected to show crude inventories fell by 2.4M barrels last week, according to S&P Global Platts.
  
  
• March WTI (CL1:COM) recently was at $55.07/bbl in electronic trading after settling today at $54.76/bbl.
  
  
• USO +0.5% after-hours.
  

[vbin]

(02-02-2021, 06:04 PM)EricL Wrote: Another bullish crude draw...

• The American Petroleum Institute reportedly shows a draw of 4.26M barrels of oil for the week ending Jan. 29.
  
  
• Gasoline inventories reportedly show a draw of 240K barrels, distillate inventories show a draw of 1.62M barrels and Cushing inventories show a draw of 1.88M barrels.
  
  
• Data to be released tomorrow from the Energy Information Administration is expected to show crude inventories fell by 2.4M barrels last week, according to S&P Global Platts.
  
  
• March WTI (CL1:COM) recently was at $55.07/bbl in electronic trading after settling today at $54.76/bbl.
  
  
• USO +0.5% after-hours.
  

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