VBIN's oil stock thread.

[vbin]

(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks. I would definitely do that with a portion. I realize you are underwater on some of your shares. You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two. I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant. When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time. I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid. My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher. High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium. I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks. You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.

Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.

[fenders53]

(01-17-2021, 07:40 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks.  I would definitely do that with a portion.  I realize you are underwater on some of your shares.  You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two.  I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant.  When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time.  I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid.  My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher.  High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium.  I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks.  You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.

Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.

It tends to work better when I stagger them.  No need to have three contracts sold all at once.  Also need to wait for a stock to come off the bottom if it is severely beaten down.  Doesn't work nearly as well when the VIX is low either.  Tough call when or if to start.

[vbin]

(01-18-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 07:40 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks.  I would definitely do that with a portion.  I realize you are underwater on some of your shares.  You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two.  I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant.  When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time.  I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid.  My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher.  High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium.  I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks.  You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.

Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.

It tends to work better when I stagger them.  No need to have three contracts sold all at once.  Also need to wait for a stock to come off the bottom if it is severely beaten down.  Doesn't work nearly as well when the VIX is low either.  Tough call when or if to start.

Yeah that was stupid of me to be greedy for pennies when XOM was at lows. Lesson Learned.

[fenders53]

(01-19-2021, 02:44 AM)vbin Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 07:40 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks.  I would definitely do that with a portion.  I realize you are underwater on some of your shares.  You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two.  I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant.  When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time.  I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid.  My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher.  High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium.  I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks.  You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.

Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.

It tends to work better when I stagger them.  No need to have three contracts sold all at once.  Also need to wait for a stock to come off the bottom if it is severely beaten down.  Doesn't work nearly as well when the VIX is low either.  Tough call when or if to start.

Yeah that was stupid of me to be greedy for pennies when XOM was at lows. Lesson Learned.

[fenders53]

That's how we learn and establish our personal rules. It's why I dont like a wheel strategy that is on cruise control. Over sold or bought usually matters. And of course there will be a lot of years when the market goes sideways or slightly down for years. Covered calls look attractive then. It's been years since you could get by with selling them on your entire port without regretting it soon. I really do like to stagger them though. It's a lot easier to swallow if you still have shares running.

[EricL]

India's oil imports highest since October 2018.

https://twitter.com/ChristianSchX74/stat...7002377218

   

[EricL]

Global crude oil floating storage now just 15m barrels above pre-pandemic levels.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/13...1341822987

   

[EricL]

Saudi rig count continues to fall, now off ~75% from high.

https://twitter.com/kingofcrude/status/1...3790804997

   

[fenders53]

They know economic recovery is going to be slow. Seems they may play it smarter this time. Maybe this will keep oil over 50 while some time passes?

[vbin]

@EricL floating storage makes sense becouse companies have to pay to store. But Soudis rig count could be a bad sign if they expect economy to still not have the pre-covid kind of demand ?

[EricL]

(01-26-2021, 12:00 PM)vbin Wrote: Soudis rig count could be a bad sign if they expect economy to still not have the pre-covid kind of demand ?

Or it could be a good sign because they don't have enough cash flow to run rigs...

[fenders53]

We should know by end of summer when there might be enough demand to justify more supply. In any case it's good. I never expected $50 oil until summer.