The Speculative Stocks....

[EricL]

Simon Property Group down another 6.5% today, and now yielding over 19%.

I don't see how this doesn't end in a huge dividend cut.

[fenders53]

(04-02-2020, 02:26 PM)EricL Wrote: Simon Property Group down another 6.5% today, and now yielding over 19%.

I don't see how this doesn't end in a huge dividend cut.

Another well pumped "SWAN" from S.A.  There has to be some value in those SPG assets at some point but who knows where today?

[EricL]

(04-02-2020, 02:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Another well pumped "SWAN" from S.A.  There has to be some value in those SPG assets at some point but who knows where today?

The problem is, there's a difference between the value in the assets on the books, and the value of the assets in real life.

Brick & mortar retail & department stores were in a heap of trouble already before this pandemic hit, and are in much worse shape now.

How do you value those assets?

[NilesMike]

OILU an ETF also did a major screw job on owners. A 10-1 dilution and then ended the fund. WTH?

[Otter]

(04-02-2020, 04:27 PM)NilesMike Wrote: OILU an ETF also did a major screw job on owners. A 10-1 dilution and then ended the fund. WTH?

Those 3x leveraged ETFs are like playing with fire. 

Closed out my USO LEAPs today for a 44.7% gain. Rolled the proceeds into more 01/21/22 UUP 27 Puts

Also bought some UDN in an account that doesn't have options access.

[fenders53]

(04-02-2020, 04:59 PM)Otter Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 04:27 PM)NilesMike Wrote: OILU an ETF also did a major screw job on owners. A 10-1 dilution and then ended the fund. WTH?

Those 3x leveraged ETFs are like playing with fire. 

Closed out my USO LEAPs today for a 44.7% gain. Rolled the proceeds into more 01/21/22 UUP 27 Puts

Also bought some UDN in an account that doesn't have options access.

I had to go check it out but why was I not surprised UDN was going to be some sort of a shorting vehicle?  

Good job on the USO trade.  I'm not making any wagers on oil prices.  It's good that you know people.

[fenders53]

(04-02-2020, 02:36 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 02:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Another well pumped "SWAN" from S.A.  There has to be some value in those SPG assets at some point but who knows where today?

The problem is, there's a difference between the value in the assets on the books, and the value of the assets in real life.

Brick & mortar retail & department stores were in a heap of trouble already before this pandemic hit, and are in much worse shape now.

How do you value those assets?

No idea and I'm not buying a stock because I want to invest in real estate liquidation anyway.  SPG isn't going away, but investors are going to lose a lot of money.  The pandemic is going to change the brick and mortar landscape some.

While we are chatting about shopping centers. Strip malls that look a lot like Tanger do very well where I live, but they are in town in the high traffic areas. The newer malls do reasonably well too, but they can't keep an anchor department store alive.

[Otter]

(04-02-2020, 06:22 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 04:59 PM)Otter Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 04:27 PM)NilesMike Wrote: OILU an ETF also did a major screw job on owners. A 10-1 dilution and then ended the fund. WTH?

Those 3x leveraged ETFs are like playing with fire. 

Closed out my USO LEAPs today for a 44.7% gain. Rolled the proceeds into more 01/21/22 UUP 27 Puts

Also bought some UDN in an account that doesn't have options access.

I had to go check it out but why was I not surprised UDN was going to be some sort of a shorting vehicle?  

Good job on the USO trade.  I'm not making any wagers on oil prices.  It's good that you know people.

UUP = Dollar go up

UDN = Dollar go down

I should have hung in there on that USO trade. I figured when the Saudi and Russian oil ministers said that they had no idea what Trump was tweeting about, that crude would give up a bit of its 25% gains. Apparently not. I'm thinking of investing in lithium futures, because this market is bipolar.

[Otter]

(04-02-2020, 06:27 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 02:36 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 02:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Another well pumped "SWAN" from S.A.  There has to be some value in those SPG assets at some point but who knows where today?

The problem is, there's a difference between the value in the assets on the books, and the value of the assets in real life.

Brick & mortar retail & department stores were in a heap of trouble already before this pandemic hit, and are in much worse shape now.

How do you value those assets?

No idea and I'm not buying a stock because I want to invest in real estate liquidation anyway.  SPG isn't going away, but investors are going to lose a lot of money.  The pandemic is going to change the brick and mortar landscape some.

While we are chatting about shopping centers.  Strip malls that look a lot like Tanger do very well where I live, but they are in town in the high traffic areas.  The newer malls do reasonably well too, but they can't keep an anchor department store alive.

I think there will be a brief period after all of this where traditional brick and mortar retail sees a temporary spike, as people relish being back outside and not having to order everything online. 

I think it will be brief (maybe one excellent quarter), as people go back to buying whatever is cheapest from Amazon pretty quickly. 

This assumes anyone is still employed and capable of buying anything.

[fenders53]

(04-03-2020, 09:02 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 06:27 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 02:36 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 02:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Another well pumped "SWAN" from S.A.  There has to be some value in those SPG assets at some point but who knows where today?

The problem is, there's a difference between the value in the assets on the books, and the value of the assets in real life.

Brick & mortar retail & department stores were in a heap of trouble already before this pandemic hit, and are in much worse shape now.

How do you value those assets?

No idea and I'm not buying a stock because I want to invest in real estate liquidation anyway.  SPG isn't going away, but investors are going to lose a lot of money.  The pandemic is going to change the brick and mortar landscape some.

While we are chatting about shopping centers.  Strip malls that look a lot like Tanger do very well where I live, but they are in town in the high traffic areas.  The newer malls do reasonably well too, but they can't keep an anchor department store alive.

I think there will be a brief period after all of this where traditional brick and mortar retail sees a temporary spike, as people relish being back outside and not having to order everything online. 

I think it will be brief (maybe one excellent quarter), as people go back to buying whatever is cheapest from Amazon pretty quickly. 

This assumes anyone is still employed and capable of buying anything.

They are going to have to market what HD calls BOPIS (buy online pickup in store, or your house).  It's amazing HD didn't get truly serious about it until last year, and many other's still haven't.  I teach several people a day how to do it and they weren't aware how easy it is.  There are millions of people with money that are not so confident on how to run the internet and buy things they can't get locally.  Simple returns is some of the attraction.

[Otter]

Just bought some 7/17/20 USO 5.50 Puts. Will sell on the first down leg for oil, as this recent 38.5% run up in just a few days seems a tiny bit overdone.

[fenders53]

(04-03-2020, 11:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Just bought some 7/17/20 USO 5.50 Puts. Will sell on the first down leg for oil, as this recent 38.5% run up in just a few days seems a tiny bit overdone.

I may blindly follow you.  There is nothing at all rational about the move up.  Demand outlook has changed exactly zero and that will matter soon enough.