2020 Covid-19 Recession

[NilesMike]

DGI portfolio down 19%

[fenders53]

(03-28-2020, 12:36 PM)NilesMike Wrote: DGI portfolio down 19%

Thanks Mike, honesty is good.  I am real close to that number.  I had to fight my way back to that last week because I was invested in a couple of the wrong sectors.

[NilesMike]

(03-28-2020, 12:47 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-28-2020, 12:36 PM)NilesMike Wrote: DGI portfolio down 19%

Thanks Mike, honesty is good.  I am real close to that number.  I had to fight my way back to that last week because I was invested in a couple of the wrong sectors.

If this is where go up from, that's not a bad hit. My bonds are up about 13%ish through the drop and my options and futures scalping has helped out a bunch.

I don't mind being down 19% as long as the economy firms up and goes forward. A long grind back up would actually help my divvy drip as we go.

[fenders53]

That is usually what happens eventually. I don't expect it soon.

[rayray]

My portfolio is currently down

-16.37% from my market peak

-17.13% YTD


EDIT: I did not figure out what the numbers were at market lows--it was bad

        Also, did not figure out what the numbers would have been if I haven't been buying through it--it would have been really bad

[fenders53]

(03-29-2020, 07:56 AM)rayray Wrote: My portfolio is currently down

-16.37% from my market peak

-17.13% YTD


EDIT: I did not figure out what the numbers were at market lows--it was bad

        Also, did not figure out what the numbers would have been if I haven't been buying through it--it would have been really bad

I think I was down about 30% just a week ago.  I no longer have any significant new money to invest.  Some of us trade options in a conservative manner.  The volatility is historically insane and makes it as easy as it will ever be to skim $200-500 or even more several times a week with little risk if you are patient.  I can buy some beaten down stocks with that money.  It's my only way to buy some of this fear and add shares to high quality companies.  

I got caught with shares of oil, life insurance, basic materials and airlines.  I was not at all over-weighted but I got crushed REALLY bad.  Mostly staying the course but I chickened out on oil.  I strongly suspect I can buy a little oil back when some of the smaller ones start folding.  I don't want to be around when majors cut dividends.  They don't have the cash to buy up the little companies this time unless they suspend their dividends.  It's just additional risk I don't need.

[stockguru]

Get ready for the worst 2-4 weeks in the market.. it’s coming so have that cash ready!! Cash is KING.. I’m not being party pooper just speaking the truth lol

We may be only down 19% but it will be 30% by the end of April. This is the time to be lightening up

I have heard that any Biz taking relief money will have to suspend Divys for at least one year as well as no buybacks. So if that’s the case these companies are in deep trinkets for a while. People are going to start to default on loans. These small business although ok over the next few months due the package the government set in place. Just wait until we get into months. It’s going to be very tough going forward. I feel bad for all these small businesses that won’t be able to survive.

Even when this all over. Everyone is still going to be practicing social distancing. There will be fewer people in restaurants, movie theaters will be dead, shopping area dead ect. Just because they tell us its ok to go out again doesn't mean it will be safe. And that is the scary part. This can come back at any time. All it takes is one to get infected again. I fear for my kids going back to school. A lot more fear will be setting in. This is far from over.

A lot of people don't have cash laying around. More selling will occur to free cash up for the families and emergency's. Think about it. Most people or families buy a fund of stock and leave it alone. Never to check on their investments until their statements come. They get out; not caring how much they lost but how much they still have left when were in desperate times. I just see a lot panic over the next few months. Sure we had panic already but more is to come. We are in a bear market, and in a bear market you have big rallies through out and lots a volatility. I also think we are headed into a recession.

So I do see a test of the lows again or even beyond that.

So where can you put your money in the meantime?? I don't know CD'S, Bonds, treasury bills, gold ??

[NilesMike]

I have a resting order to sell ES again at 2500, where will it go? Darned if I know but it's my entry signal.

Where to put cash? VUSTX has been good for me through the drop.

[fenders53]

Guru,

If you are getting out I wouldn't take a new position in bonds other than short-term treasuries. The credit markets are volatile too. I think you should be able to get about 1/2%. Depends what day you look. If you try to get a bit better rate in a CD your money will be locked up more than a few months.

I think the US Treasury has latitude in administering the stimulus. If a business takes any free money, I'm sure it comes with rules we don't prefer. Loans maybe not beyond no stock buybacks which is a hot topic politically. We should know this week.

I don't really disagree with your economy predictions. I live is a small touristy town and it is going to devastate small business. I lightened up during the last run up. Probably not enough, but I will stay the course on my most solid companies. I purchased some puts and that definitely takes some of the sting out of down market day. What I won't do is go all cash. I'll screw up the re-entry like most everyone else who ever attempts it. I'll continue swing trading some smallish positions in companies I don't mind getting stuck in long-term because that will surely happen at some point. I highly suspect the market will provide the volatility to make that viable. There will be many more stocks that act like WEN did.

Keep those kids safe, and see you on our daily chat thread lol.

[EricL]

DLR holding strong during the correction, as it is up 3% today and is now <5% away from an all-time high.

Have to think the massive shift to remote work, video conferencing, and increased data usage for streaming is a big plus for its data centers.

By far the largest position in my portfolio due to its performance.

[fenders53]

(03-30-2020, 10:14 AM)EricL Wrote: DLR holding strong during the correction, as it is up 3% today and is now <5% away from an all-time high.

Have to think the massive shift to remote work, video conferencing, and increased data usage for streaming is a big plus for its data centers.

By far the largest position in my portfolio due to its performance.

Those are going to be few and far between.  I am gradually getting fatter on healthcare and UTEs.  This defensive thing has it's advantages now and then. 

[EricL]

There's definitely money flowing into healthcare today. ABT and JNJ are both up over 7% for me. D up nearly 5% is nice as well.

Just noticed that ABT is now the #3 position in my portfolio behind DLR and LMT.