The Speculative Stocks....

[Otter]

Hoping for a quick in/out towards the close of trading today on SVXY. Picked it up Wednesday at $27.53/share in anticipation of today's massive flood of put option expiry (and corresponding reduction in implied volatility). Watching the last 30 minutes with my trade finger ready. Not holding over the weekend, LOL.

[vbin]

(03-20-2020, 02:35 PM)Otter Wrote: Hoping for a quick in/out towards the close of trading today on SVXY. Picked it up Wednesday at $27.53/share in anticipation of today's massive flood of put option expiry (and corresponding reduction in implied volatility). Watching the last 30 minutes with my trade finger ready. Not holding over the weekend, LOL.

Yeah, weekly, monthly, quarterly options expiring.

[Otter]

(03-20-2020, 02:40 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 02:35 PM)Otter Wrote: Hoping for a quick in/out towards the close of trading today on SVXY. Picked it up Wednesday at $27.53/share in anticipation of today's massive flood of put option expiry (and corresponding reduction in implied volatility). Watching the last 30 minutes with my trade finger ready. Not holding over the weekend, LOL.

Yeah, weekly,  monthly, quarterly options expiring.

Sold at $28.22 just now. Will take the 2.5% gain and consider myself lucky.

[vbin]

(03-20-2020, 02:43 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 02:40 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 02:35 PM)Otter Wrote: Hoping for a quick in/out towards the close of trading today on SVXY. Picked it up Wednesday at $27.53/share in anticipation of today's massive flood of put option expiry (and corresponding reduction in implied volatility). Watching the last 30 minutes with my trade finger ready. Not holding over the weekend, LOL.

Yeah, weekly,  monthly, quarterly options expiring.

Sold at $28.22 just now. Will take the 2.5% gain and consider myself lucky.

Good call. I think Last 10 minutes there will be more action, lol.

[Otter]

I remain bearish overall, but am astounded to see such downwards action on a day when there is this much put option expiry.

[vbin]

(03-20-2020, 02:51 PM)Otter Wrote: I remain bearish overall, but am astounded to see such downwards action on a day when there is this much put option expiry.

Agreed. Last night my thought process was that we will end up in red today then this morning I woke up and saw bulish green, it took 1 hour to then again realize that it will be red. If numbers cross 25k over the weekend, it will be red Monday. Need to watch fed and virus tightning.

[Otter]

So, on a day when SPY finished down 4.3% on above-average volume, SVXY was up 1.5%. That IV Crush is no joke, LOL.

[Otter]

Have been using "house money" (profits from a prior trade) in my wife's brokerage account for a bit of trading fun. Purchased some 10/16/20 SPY 210 Puts this morning while the market was up about 7%. Plan to sell them on the next big nosedive.

[stockguru]

(03-20-2020, 03:01 PM)Otter Wrote: So, on a day when SPY finished down 4.3% on above-average volume, SVXY was up 1.5%. That IV Crush is no joke, LOL.

What about buying SDS?? I was thinking of getting this one today. If the market is headed down another 3-4 weeks this one would be good to be in.  Maybe a good time to buy today with the market green lol

[Otter]

(03-24-2020, 10:52 AM)stockguru Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 03:01 PM)Otter Wrote: So, on a day when SPY finished down 4.3% on above-average volume, SVXY was up 1.5%. That IV Crush is no joke, LOL.

What about buying SDS?? I was thinking of getting this one today. If the market is headed down another 3-4 weeks this one would be good to be in.  Maybe a good time to buy today with the market green lol

I think there will be an opportunity to trade that profitably. Pretty sure we will see SPY back under 240 (29% off the highs). New York is about to be worse than Italy ever was, and it is likely that several other areas in the country will exceed their healthcare system capacity in the next few weeks (governor of Louisiana just predicted first week of April for New Orleans). 

Healthcare system capacity is essentially the limit for having a functioning economy (avoiding lockdowns). You can't send people to work when there are no ICU beds to go around. Any previously treatable trauma from a car accident, workplace injury, etc., becomes an additional statistic, on top of the huge surge in COVID-19 cases. Sending people back to work just keeps the infection chain going and makes the peak worse.

[vbin]

(03-24-2020, 11:04 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-24-2020, 10:52 AM)stockguru Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 03:01 PM)Otter Wrote: So, on a day when SPY finished down 4.3% on above-average volume, SVXY was up 1.5%. That IV Crush is no joke, LOL.

What about buying SDS?? I was thinking of getting this one today. If the market is headed down another 3-4 weeks this one would be good to be in.  Maybe a good time to buy today with the market green lol

I think there will be an opportunity to trade that profitably. Pretty sure we will see SPY back under 240 (29% off the highs). New York is about to be worse than Italy ever was, and it is likely that several other areas in the country will exceed their healthcare system capacity in the next few weeks (governor of Louisiana just predicted first week of April for New Orleans). 

Healthcare system capacity is essentially the limit for having a functioning economy (avoiding lockdowns). You can't send people to work when there are no ICU beds to go around. Any previously treatable trauma from a car accident, workplace injury, etc., becomes an additional statistic, on top of the huge surge in COVID-19 cases. Sending people back to work just keeps the infection chain going and makes the peak worse.

Yeah, I bought spy put as well and raised cash today. Sold Lyft, RTN, SQ, STNE so far. Trying to sell PH as well.

[fenders53]

(03-24-2020, 10:52 AM)stockguru Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 03:01 PM)Otter Wrote: So, on a day when SPY finished down 4.3% on above-average volume, SVXY was up 1.5%. That IV Crush is no joke, LOL.

What about buying SDS?? I was thinking of getting this one today. If the market is headed down another 3-4 weeks this one would be good to be in.  Maybe a good time to buy today with the market green lol

Maybe you already know this but it's 2X leveraged and  they are using options, so there is time value decay.  You need the market to move down significantly and soon.  If you try to hold it a month and the market goes sideways or loses volatility, you won't be even.  Pull up a ten year chart and you'll get the picture.  Most leveraged ETFs eventually go to zero and are liquidated. All that said the market is highly likely to dip in the next few weeks so now would be the time to try it.