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(03-17-2020, 10:06 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-17-2020, 09:58 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Took a look at Disney.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.
A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.
It's an average in sort of deal IMO. Their streaming service is killing it last report I saw. The parks will be open before you know it. They are in warm climates mostly. Some trips will be deferred rather than cancelled. I only own a small position. Not trying to be in denial but DIS will be fine. I'd be OK with some cheaper shares though lol. That said, I can think if a good reason to not buy anything until it trades for a 5 PE just to be safe.
I agree it will be fine, and $95 probably isn't a bad point to start averaging down. It's trading at 18X 2020 estimates, which is my fair value PE target. Starting to get interesting, but not a screaming buy to me is all I'm saying. There's a lot of names in discretionary with similar growth and higher yields that are trading at lower valuations. HD, LOW, MCD, ROST, VFC, TJX, SBUX to name a few. DIS might deserve the higher valuation, it is an amazing company.
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03-17-2020, 10:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2020, 10:44 AM by fenders53.)
(03-17-2020, 10:22 AM)EricL Wrote: (03-17-2020, 10:06 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-17-2020, 09:58 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Took a look at Disney.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.
A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.
It's an average in sort of deal IMO. Their streaming service is killing it last report I saw. The parks will be open before you know it. They are in warm climates mostly. Some trips will be deferred rather than cancelled. I only own a small position. Not trying to be in denial but DIS will be fine. I'd be OK with some cheaper shares though lol. That said, I can think if a good reason to not buy anything until it trades for a 5 PE just to be safe.
I agree it will be fine, and $95 probably isn't a bad point to start averaging down. It's trading at 18X 2020 estimates, which is my fair value PE target. Starting to get interesting, but not a screaming buy to me is all I'm saying. There's a lot of names in discretionary with similar growth and higher yields that are trading at lower valuations. HD, LOW, MCD, ROST, VFC, TJX, SBUX to name a few. DIS might deserve the higher valuation, it is an amazing company.
I DEFINITELY appreciate your advice Eric, even if it sounds like I don't. I could find a reason I don't prefer a few of the stocks you just recommended. HD, awesome company, debt is excessive and it will haunt them if a recession is in fact coming which seems to be everyone's current thesis. They are finally struggling to meet same store sales growth targets. I personally observe the insane attempt at cost cutting to make it keep happening. They will run out of luck some quarter very soon. The stock was significantly overvalued 48hrs ago. Things are fluid for sure. DIS is down $50. Is the earnings miss already accounted for? Nobody knows until it happens.
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(03-17-2020, 10:04 AM)DividendGarden Wrote: I agree with both of you. So at what price would you really load up on DIS at?
I honestly didn't look too much into it, I just saw that it's not at a level where I'm interested so I stopped digging deeper. If it gets down to around $80 then I'll take a closer look.
Basically you need to account for the parks to be closed for the majority of 2020, which I guess would lead to the park section posting negative income. If I recall correctly, it's their most profitable segment.
Then, depending on how long this thing goes on, ESPN is going to get hit big due to no professional sports.
The streaming service had a great start and I see it as an amazing long-term asset.
Of course the company will be fine in the long term once this virus fades away, I don't doubt that. I just think it needs to go further down before I initiate a position. I'm also not a big fan of the sub 2% dividend, it's a very small yield to get in the current environment.
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I do have a small "place marker" position I thought I would add to on a further dip. The dividend yield is exactly what I can't get exited about. It's pretty easy to find a solid company with 4-5% at the moment with a share price that is just as beat down. DIS has never had a great div That was OK last year when it was running up 30% last year. While I do think it will head back up to $140 when things sort out (Q4), I still don't expect it to be a true DGI stock. I'll probably end up flipping my DIS at some point. Better bargains have appeared since I purchased my shares. And the parks division has to be a huge part of their profit mix. It's like paying for a major sports event tickets. Add the hotels and cruise ship revenue on top of that. The hotels might still be open but I don't know why you would book it now.
Now everyone stop trashing DIS. Kerim has wanted it for a long time.  I'm confident he'll be fine by next year.
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[quote pid='19711' dateline='1584496187']
Now everyone stop trashing DIS. Kerim has wanted it for a long time. I'm confident he'll be fine by next year.
[/quote]
Trash it all you want -- cheaper is better!
LOW, MAIN, O, WPC, SPG, MMM, HD, CMI, DIS, UTX just to name a few
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(03-18-2020, 02:47 PM)Binary Wrote: LOW, MAIN, O, WPC, SPG, MMM, HD, CMI, DIS, UTX just to name a feW
The biggest pounding is going to come from my WIFE 
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03-18-2020, 03:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020, 03:30 PM by fenders53.)
(03-18-2020, 02:58 PM)kblake Wrote: (03-18-2020, 02:47 PM)Binary Wrote: LOW, MAIN, O, WPC, SPG, MMM, HD, CMI, DIS, UTX just to name a feW
The biggest pounding is going to come from my WIFE
I'd just buy a CD if my wife saw the brokerage account more than once a year.
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PH Parker Hannifan is a good one for the watch list. Definitely not recession proof though.
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(03-20-2020, 09:29 AM)fenders53 Wrote: PH Parker Hannifan is a good one for the watch list. Definitely not recession proof though.
$10B of debt vs $1B of cash, that seems kind of worrisome in this kind of economy right now. But wish I got in under $100
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(03-20-2020, 10:13 AM)stockguru Wrote: (03-20-2020, 09:29 AM)fenders53 Wrote: PH Parker Hannifan is a good one for the watch list. Definitely not recession proof though.
$10B of debt vs $1B of cash, that seems kind of worrisome in this kind of economy right now. But wish I got in under $100
Don't worry, they'll make more money. I'm excited amount companies with only 10B in debt lol.
Seriously though, it's a solid industrial with a good growth rate and their FCF is good. There are just too many good industrials on sale now. If I had any sense I would dump MMM and grab PH but I'm trying to resist the temptation to flip my port around excessively.
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(03-20-2020, 10:23 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-20-2020, 10:13 AM)stockguru Wrote: (03-20-2020, 09:29 AM)fenders53 Wrote: PH Parker Hannifan is a good one for the watch list. Definitely not recession proof though.
$10B of debt vs $1B of cash, that seems kind of worrisome in this kind of economy right now. But wish I got in under $100
Don't worry, they'll make more money. I'm excited amount companies with only 10B in debt lol.
Seriously though, it's a solid industrial with a good growth rate and their FCF is good. There are just too many good industrials on sale now. If I had any sense I would dump MMM and grab PH but I'm trying to resist the temptation to flip my port around excessively.
What about ETN fenders? I got my eye on this one
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