Tips for surviving a correction

[Otter]

Far more infectious than the flu, as well. 

[fenders53]

Our free country thing doesn't lend itself well to being locked down. We could certainly do it, but it would cripple the economy by default , and this is an election year.

[Otter]

*Checks oil and S&P futures as markets start to open in Asia*

Wow.

[fenders53]

(03-08-2020, 05:46 PM)Otter Wrote: *Checks oil and S&P futures as markets start to open in Asia*

Wow.

Saudi is calling out Russia for not cooperating with production cuts last week. News came out Saturday AM as I posted on the busy thread.  It's just public negotiation right now but oil is going down big time tomorrow until this is sorted.  The proposed oil dump prices by Saudi are for April so there is time. Shalers would go BK at the projected prices.  That's a desirable outcome for Russia and Saudi but accomplishing it overnight would cut their own throats short-term.  The oil drama will be thick for awhile.  Fracker share price drops will be as harsh as it ever gets in the oil patch tomorrow.  Hopefully the majors will be OK enough but they will all get beat up if nothing happens overnight.  I'm in the acceptance stage now and will have to be comfortable with it.  Just hold my oil for years and hope they get back to somewhere near even in a few years.  We are headed for oil crash prices with the virus just getting spooled up in the US.  Things change fast but this appears to be completely up to Russia and Saudi.  Our president will be thrilled with some free oil during an election year.

[vbin]

It's free fall in forex for gbp and USD, yen is climbing on a rocket.

[divmenow]

Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day.... Dividend cuts this week. Wow just don’t watch the ticker lol

[fenders53]

(03-08-2020, 07:19 PM)divmenow Wrote: Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day.... Dividend cuts this week. Wow just don’t  watch the ticker lol

As this is why we buy quality, the major players in a commodity business.  XOM isn't going out of business  tomorrow, next week or next year.  Just go about your business, and tend to the rest of your port if you must.  It's hard not to over-react and sell, double down or whatever.  My BP cards have already been dealt.  Time to put them in my pocket and collect the dividend. 

I won't be surprised if the whole market goes down in sympathy tomorrow because oil is too cheap. A few months from now they will credit cheap energy as a catalyst for global economic recovery.

[divmenow]

(03-08-2020, 09:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-08-2020, 07:19 PM)divmenow Wrote: Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day.... Dividend cuts this week. Wow just don’t  watch the ticker lol

As this is why we buy quality, the major players in a commodity business.  XOM isn't going out of business  tomorrow, next week or next year.  Just go about your business, and tend to the rest of your port if you must.  It's hard not to over-react and sell, double down or whatever.  My BP cards have already been dealt.  Time to put them in my pocket and collect the dividend. 

I won't be surprised if the whole market goes down in sympathy tomorrow because oil is too cheap. A few months from now they will credit cheap energy as a catalyst for global economic recovery.

Oh I'm buying some oil Tomorrow. Think of it as an old lady with her walker trying to get to the other side of street. Eventually she will make it to the other side lol. Oil will come back and if your patient she will treat you right 

[fenders53]

(03-08-2020, 09:18 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(03-08-2020, 09:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-08-2020, 07:19 PM)divmenow Wrote: Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day.... Dividend cuts this week. Wow just don’t  watch the ticker lol

As this is why we buy quality, the major players in a commodity business.  XOM isn't going out of business  tomorrow, next week or next year.  Just go about your business, and tend to the rest of your port if you must.  It's hard not to over-react and sell, double down or whatever.  My BP cards have already been dealt.  Time to put them in my pocket and collect the dividend. 

I won't be surprised if the whole market goes down in sympathy tomorrow because oil is too cheap. A few months from now they will credit cheap energy as a catalyst for global economic recovery.

Oh I'm buying some oil Tomorrow. Think of it as an old lady with her walker trying to get to the other side of street. Eventually she will make it to the other side lol. Oil will come back and if your patient she will treat you right 

My last wasn't really directed at anyone in particular.  If I buy anymore oil it won't be too much, and it probably won't be tomorrow.  There are a lot of stocks cheap enough for me now.  I don't care if they drop another 25%.  We'll I'd prefer they don't of course but I'm comfortable enough here.   I'm not going to get caught sitting on my hands like last December.  You've probably heard you can't time the bottom?  Yeah, we'll that's bull hooey.  If you just buy some shares a couple times for week for a few years you'll hit her lol. I should write investment books lol. 

[vbin]

Oil is down 30-35% today.

[fenders53]

(03-08-2020, 11:40 PM)vbin Wrote: Oil is down 30-35% today.

I don't think it will stay there long if it really drops that low tomorrow.  It may well be as volatile as SPX has been lately.  The whole world knows Saudi doesn't really want to dump oil that cheap on the market.  I have no doubt they might do it for a month though to bring others to the negotiation.  They've done it before. Unfortunately both Russia and S.A. called each other out a little too publicly.  Nobody is backing down 100% now.  Kinda like trade negotiations using Twitter to talk some trash. 

This may be the last time I tangle with oil.  I am going to keep my cool and leave right though.  If that means holding it for years and selling some covered calls, I guess that's how it will be.  The only sector that has never rewarded my patience if I held long enough.  I'm really starting to hate commodity based stocks.

[vbin]

(03-09-2020, 12:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-08-2020, 11:40 PM)vbin Wrote: Oil is down 30-35% today.

I don't think it will stay there long if it really drops that low tomorrow.  It may well be as volatile as SPX has been lately.  The whole world knows Saudi doesn't really want to dump oil that cheap on the market.  I have no doubt they might do it for a month though to bring others to the negotiation.  They've done it before. Unfortunately both Russia and S.A. called each other out a little too publicly.  Nobody is backing down 100% now.  Kinda like trade negotiations using Twitter to talk some trash. 

This may be the last time I tangle with oil.  I am going to keep my cool and leave right though.  If that means holding it for years and selling some covered calls, I guess that's how it will be.  The only sector that has never rewarded my patience if I held long enough.  I'm really starting to hate commodity based stocks.

There is another theory that it isn't targeted at Russia. Russia and Saudis both want shale and fracking to get hurt or may be don't want trump.to.be elected second term and hence opportunate timing given the recent s&p volatility. ( All speculation ).

Also from what I learned Saudis can ramp up much more production that Russia. So Russia will have to come to negotiate unless Putin really wants the whole Russian oil sector to really take a hard hit due to his ego.