Tips for surviving a correction

[vbin]

His predictions aren't 5 years early. He ain't predicting either. He is sharing what he thinks is the impact could be of an event. Disclaimer: I am no fan of him. But these guys like Dalio, Buffer, you and more seniors folks here are greatly knowledgeable than I am and I find all these view points very interesting and very informative. It's always good to know thoughts outside the sphere of my own thinking and I find them very informative.

They have definitely helped me navigate these events and be a better trader/investor.

[fenders53]

(03-05-2020, 03:06 PM)vbin Wrote: His predictions aren't 5 years early. He ain't predicting either. He is sharing what he thinks is the impact could be of an event. Disclaimer: I am no fan of him. But these guys like Dalio, Buffer, you and more seniors folks here are greatly knowledgeable than I am and I find all these view points very interesting and very informative. It's always good to know thoughts outside the sphere  of my own thinking and I find them very informative.

They have definitely helped me navigate these events and be a better trader/investor.

Watch another dozen Dalio vids dating back for years as I have.  He is very smart, and a perma-bear that missed the bus for years if you allow him to influence your action.s  Don't worry about us senior folks.  We can be wrong too and we are just having a discussion.

[divmenow]

Remember when Tariffs were the talk of the town lol. Don't they still exist.? I haven't heard a thing on this topic it feels like since Christmas. The Coronavirus is just one thing having over the market. Trump has a lot on his plate right now. He's going to need 10 cups of starbucks every to deal with so much stuff not to mention all the politics.

Do you guys remember the dot com bubble. When they ran up DELL and CPQ to $300 a share and then boom. Those were the days i try and forget about lol

The market always gives us buying opportunities. This is one of those times. The question is how long will it last?

[vbin]

(03-05-2020, 03:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-05-2020, 03:06 PM)vbin Wrote: His predictions aren't 5 years early. He ain't predicting either. He is sharing what he thinks is the impact could be of an event. Disclaimer: I am no fan of him. But these guys like Dalio, Buffer, you and more seniors folks here are greatly knowledgeable than I am and I find all these view points very interesting and very informative. It's always good to know thoughts outside the sphere  of my own thinking and I find them very informative.

They have definitely helped me navigate these events and be a better trader/investor.

Watch another dozen Dalio vids dating back for years as I have.  He is very smart, and a perma-bear that missed the bus for years if you allow him to influence your action.s  Don't worry about us senior folks.  We can be wrong too and we are just having a discussion.

I gather and learn from everyone in my surroundings, we all do and all of that influences our decisions. Sorry I was just trying to share info not to offend anyone, ignore if you don't like something. Do share what you bought and what you did not and your thoughts, definitely helps me. Thank you .

[fenders53]

(03-05-2020, 05:43 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-05-2020, 03:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-05-2020, 03:06 PM)vbin Wrote: His predictions aren't 5 years early. He ain't predicting either. He is sharing what he thinks is the impact could be of an event. Disclaimer: I am no fan of him. But these guys like Dalio, Buffer, you and more seniors folks here are greatly knowledgeable than I am and I find all these view points very interesting and very informative. It's always good to know thoughts outside the sphere  of my own thinking and I find them very informative.

They have definitely helped me navigate these events and be a better trader/investor.

Watch another dozen Dalio vids dating back for years as I have.  He is very smart, and a perma-bear that missed the bus for years if you allow him to influence your action.s  Don't worry about us senior folks.  We can be wrong too and we are just having a discussion.

I gather and learn from everyone in my surroundings, we all do and all of that influences our decisions. Sorry I was just trying to share info not to offend anyone, ignore if you don't like something. Do share what you bought and what you did not and your thoughts, definitely helps me. Thank you .

Nothing to be sorry for at all.  I get some good tips here.  When somebody shares their buy or sell thesis it is often useful. We can't track them all every day.

[fenders53]

vbin

Jeffrey Gundlach,  is another one you might add to you video list.  Maybe not now, as he is sobering as well.  He is a bond wizard, and became a billionaire that way.  Bonds drive the stock market, and he is very informative.  He is another one of the few that called the financial crisis in advance and made a fortune.  He'll be early with his next call no doubt, but he is still very educational to listen to.  When a true crash comes, his thesis is high quality corporate bonds will once again over-react and get way too cheap.  You can get bull-market growth stock returns when a solid company like MMM or BA (just an example) takes a big hit because things got rough and they are suddenly not very profitable for a few quarters.  Their bonds get roughed up and sell at a huge discount when their is panic.  Just another way to diversify.  It appeals to me because you aren't dealing with decaying option premiums when you get the entry timing  wrong.  Just requires some patience for companies you know are not going to default in the end.

[Otter]

(03-06-2020, 09:14 AM)fenders53 Wrote: vbin

Jeffrey Gundlach,  is another one you might add to you video list.  Maybe not now, as he is sobering as well.  He is a bond wizard, and became a billionaire that way.  Bonds drive the stock market, and he is very informative.  He is another one of the few that called the financial crisis in advance and made a fortune.  He'll be early with his next call no doubt, but he is still very educational to listen to.  When a true crash comes, his thesis is high quality corporate bonds will once again over-react and get way too cheap.  You can get bull-market growth stock returns when a solid company like MMM or BA (just an example) takes a big hit because things got rough and they are suddenly not very profitable for a few quarters.  Their bonds get roughed up and sell at a huge discount when their is panic.  Just another way to diversify.  It appeals to me because you aren't dealing with decaying option premiums when you get the entry timing  wrong.  Just requires some patience for companies you know are not going to default in the end.

I'd love to see yields on MSFT and JNJ paper spike.

[fenders53]

(03-06-2020, 09:58 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-06-2020, 09:14 AM)fenders53 Wrote: vbin

Jeffrey Gundlach,  is another one you might add to you video list.  Maybe not now, as he is sobering as well.  He is a bond wizard, and became a billionaire that way.  Bonds drive the stock market, and he is very informative.  He is another one of the few that called the financial crisis in advance and made a fortune.  He'll be early with his next call no doubt, but he is still very educational to listen to.  When a true crash comes, his thesis is high quality corporate bonds will once again over-react and get way too cheap.  You can get bull-market growth stock returns when a solid company like MMM or BA (just an example) takes a big hit because things got rough and they are suddenly not very profitable for a few quarters.  Their bonds get roughed up and sell at a huge discount when their is panic.  Just another way to diversify.  It appeals to me because you aren't dealing with decaying option premiums when you get the entry timing  wrong.  Just requires some patience for companies you know are not going to default in the end.

I'd love to see yields on MSFT and JNJ paper spike.

Wouldn't we all.    JNJ, AAPL and MSFT and the very few elite might not make the list short of market Armageddon, but there are a lot of single A and BBB+ bonds that get way too cheap when the market panics.  The 0% interest rate thing is probably going to have to show signs of not working for this to happen.  Some level of actual recession.  A sound company like a major industrial, or maybe even an oil major gets in a little midterm trouble, a credit downgrade, and all hell breaks loose.   This has happened before and it will again if they don't address their debt when they should. Gundlach has been interviewed many times. They are long and boring. I'll find a good one for you to listen to. His funds may be the best way to play it. Just a place I may throw $100K in the future. I'll stay diversified.

[Otter]

Latest Italian numbers reported.

Total confirmed cases: 4636 (+778, 20% increase over yesterday)

2394 (+604) hospitalized (51.6% hospitalization rate for detected cases)

462 (+111) in ICU (10% ICU rate for detected cases - in China the fatality rate for cases requiring ICU care was just over 50%)

Deceased: 197 (+49)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the United States:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OE...pital_beds

[fenders53]

The next few weeks will be interesting. The US market seems only moderately concerned with foreign deaths. It's going to get real here soon for better or worse. We are about to find out how awesome our US healthcare really is or isn't, and if our containment efforts are effective at all. I wish it wasn't true, but I do like your chances with your puts. This is going to be your best crash aversion attempt of your investing career most likely. You only need one IMO.

[Otter]

(03-06-2020, 12:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote: The next few weeks will be interesting.  The US market seems only moderately concerned with foreign deaths.  It's going to get real here soon for better or worse.  We are about to find out how awesome our US healthcare really is or isn't, and if our containment efforts are effective at all.  I wish it wasn't true, but I do like your chances with your puts.  This is going to be your best crash aversion attempt of your investing career most likely.  You only need one IMO.

Containment has failed. All that matters now is mitigation, per epidemiological and infectious disease experts. The only mitigation strategy that worked for China was extreme quarantine measures (complete shutdown of transport networks, mandatory quarantine at home for all residents of Hubei Province, martial law in some areas). Community spread here is completely unchecked at this time (Seattle and New York numbers bear this out). 

Our healthcare system is at a disadvantage to places that have universal coverage/care (essentially every other OECD country), when faced with a pandemic. We have 28 million uninsured Americans, and there is no paid sick leave for millions of low-income workers, whose only choice is work or default on the bills. We also have no universal preventive care, and a high proportion of the population with significant comorbidity factors for COVID-19, such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. 

Our hospital system operates near capacity during flu season in most years, and was mostly built with a profit motive in mind. Hospital Corporation of America (and similarly situated companies) would have been punished by shareholders if they built excess capacity into their systems, same as airlines are punished by investors for having excess capacity. There are multiple reasons why we are No. 32 globally amongst OECD countries for hospital beds per capita.

[vbin]

And CDC said they will stop reporting ccv-19 numbers, makes u wonder why. They will only report if a state has positive cv-19 cases or not.