Electric Cars

[Ron Ricco]

Let me first say that I am not a Musk worshiper or a Greta follower. I just think that anything that helps the air we breath and helps reduce our use of foreign oil, is a good thing. A lot of the arguments I hear against EV’s just don’t hold a lot of water and are very similar to the ones my 83 year old dad brought up when I purchased my Model 3. “You are just burning coal!” etc. From his standpoint he is (was) looking for reasons to not like them because of politics. 

“You are just burning coal in that thing.”
Actually dad, mostly no. In your (his) state the majority of electricity production is from natural gas with single digits produced from coal. Many states are less and have a very nigh percentage from renewables.
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[url=https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/state-electricity-generation-fuel-shares]https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/state-electricity-generation-fuel-shares

“The grid can’t handle all those electric cars.”
The average person drives less than 40 miles a day. Most EV’s are going to be charged at home and at night when demand is down. A person can easily charge off a standard 110v (5-6mph) to replenish their daily commute. A 240v (same as your clothes dryer) will give you 20-40mph. Think about it. Your whole neighborhood is running their AC all day in the summer, you don’t think you can plug in an EV at midnight when demand is half or less without straining the grid?

“I read when it is cold, you get less range.” 
Yes this is true and on a long trip this is something to take into consideration. It is also true that an ICE also loses up to 20% range in extreme cold as well. The difference is that it is easier at the moment to “fill up” an ICE car than it is an EV on a road trip. Of course this is not really a factor when we are talking about the “average” daily driving and an initial range of 240-300 miles. If you look at how the infrastructure is changing with regards to fast charging, this will become less and less of an issue. 

I AM NOT saying that EVs are perfect and that are going to work or be practical in every situation. If I had long distances to go in Alaska or some other cold rural area would it make sense? No. But for the average person in the average situation, many of the arguments are of the straw man variety at this point. 

[fenders53]

Ron,

An interesting subject full of misinformation, and politics. I've been interested for a long time. I really thought hybrids would take off 20 years ago. The cost was the problem. Initial purchase price, battery replacement, and the fact fossil fuels get cheap intermittently. EV range confined it to hybrid or it wasn't practical at all. The latter is changing fast of course. I believe EV will be adopted as viable technology, but nowhere close to the rate the "Cult" recites on S.A. and elsewhere. GM and Ford are proceeding slow for valid reasons (IMO). They'll catch up when it makes sense.

To your points, I do wonder if the grid could support widespread adoption of EV over the course of just a few years. I suspect the answer is no in many areas of the country. I don't think we will test that theory. I could drive an EV has my local work car. I can also keep driving my 2008 Camry ICE at a tiny fraction of overall cost. I think EV adoption will be VERY slow in more rural areas. That won't likely slow the growth of EV though.

I can envision EVs and hybrids at 10% of US market this decade. Considerably higher in Europe. Actually outlawing ICE anywhere seems incredibly risky. I don't see it happening without grandfathering it in over such long periods of time it's basically meaningless now. I don't see EV putting oil out of business. I do see it killing growth sufficiently to cause problems with my oil investments in the not so distant future.

[crimsonghost747]

(02-10-2020, 08:08 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: “You are just burning coal in that thing.”
Actually dad, mostly no. In your (his) state the majority of electricity production is from natural gas with single digits produced from coal. Many states are less and have a very nigh percentage from renewables.


“The grid can’t handle all those electric cars.”
The average person drives less than 40 miles a day. Most EV’s are going to be charged at home and at night when demand is down. A person can easily charge off a standard 110v (5-6mph) to replenish their daily commute. A 240v (same as your clothes dryer) will give you 20-40mph. Think about it. Your whole neighborhood is running their AC all day in the summer, you don’t think you can plug in an EV at midnight when demand is half or less without straining the grid?

Personally, I am quite a big believer in electric cars. But they do pose a lot of challenges, and the grid thing is indeed a challenge. A big one.

But quickly on the coal thing. It's 27.5% for US in 2018, the official 2019 data is not out yet. So yes, it might be less than 10% for you but it's still a third for most. And as you are aware, natural gas is the main source at 35.2%. Fossil fuels totalled 63.6%. Now these might be slightly lower now, that is 2018 statistics, but statistically for the average person it's going to be almost 2/3rds from fossil sources. 

Then there is the grid. Sure, the main grid can take the additional electricity flowing through. 
But how about the actual production? Now a regular Tesla model 3 takes 50kWh to charge from zero to full. Obviously you won't be charging it from zero to full every night, but let's say that you use up 1/3 per day. So 16kWh. That is in the same ball park with the 40 miles/day.


Now, I do live in a small apartment in the city. Tiny apartment even. We are two people, doing the regular human stuff. It's hot 24/7/365 here but the AC really isn't running that much, I turn it on when I feel it's too hot. The electric fan is on basically 24/7. My TOTAL electricity consumption is between 200 and 250kWh per month. The higher end of that range comes to about 8kWh per day. Half of what it takes to charge the 33% of a Tesla model 3. You can always check your own bill to see what you are using, it's probably a lot more than me. 

For the record, I would estimate an AC unit to use 1-2kW per hour. That is a pure estimate.


Now a few people here and there, it won't make a difference. But a lot of people charging? Yeah, it brings up the consumption in a major way. It definitely has the capacity to push up peak loads, even though the majority of people will charge at night. (but how many will actually do that instead of just plugging it in when you get home from work?) 

Then there is the fact that there are people who live in apartments instead of their own houses. A lot of people. Where do you charge? That's right, probably need a charging station built into the parking lot. That is just a small extension of the grid, and millions of these need to be made. It is not cheap to rip open a parking lot to put the wires in. Some forms of this are already taking place in Europe, and it's a step in the right direction, but it's not a cheap step. 

Then of course you have the ridiculous amount of 3rd party charging stations that need to be built for those longer distance trips. But that is not an issue, the free market will find a way when the demand is there.

[Ron Ricco]

Just a couple of actual data points.

I charged yesterday at work and added 75mi for 17 kwh at a cost of $2.28 (I only charged there because it got me Princess parking)

At least in Georgia, there is a big incentive to charge from 11p-7a. 1.41 cent per KWH. To put in the 75 miles at home would have cost 25 cents. 99% of the time, there just isn’t a reason to really ever charge during the day. You set the schedule on the car, plug it in, and it starts charging at 11pm. Since I normally only charge to 80-90%, I have topped it off before leaving for a long trip, but that is not often. In other words, I would need a reason to charge during the day and there isn’t normally a reason to do so.

Last month I used 189kwh and which was 809 miles added for a cost of $26.40

I have 6 friends who have bought an EV over the last year. 4 Model 3’s an X and a used S. We all talk about this stuff and their data points are similar when it comes to driving/charging habits. (Although one guy lives in Florida so a I am not sure what his power rate is down there).

Like I said earlier, I am not saying they are right for every situation. I also think the other auto manufactures are playing catch up at this point due technology and lack of fast charging infrastructure. Compare a Model 3 to a Bolt and there isn’t much of a fight when it comes to features or flexibility.

Anyway, good discussion. After actually owning a Tesla, I feel like I can provide real world experience. Even if cost the same as gas to drive, I would not go back to an Accord at this point. I do believe a lot of people are going to be surprised what the landscape looks like in 5 years or so and I do believe gasoline (not specifically oil) demand will have either flat lined or the rate of demand will have slowed.

And by the way, I do not own TSLA but do own XOM.

[fenders53]

Love this thread. "The rest" US companies anyway, are indeed playing catch up on technology. What they are not playing catch up on is profit on an annual basis, consistent free cash flow to pay a large dividend, and other things that matter to an investor. TSLA got by with 15 years of hopes and dreams, which may be working out. F and GM are stodgy old companies burdened with huge pension debt and the requirement to pay an above average dividend.

I do think TSLA will be a profitable company going forward. EV is here to stay IMO. I don't think they will single handedly drive any major ICE company out of business. Not even one. Sub $2.50 gasoline is a major hurdle. It's been awhile since the last time I paid over $2.50, and I don't think my local Berkshire owned utility could come close to powering us up most days if everyone here owned an EV.

[crimsonghost747]

Thanks for the data Ron, it's nice to see some real figures! And also looks to be quite in line with what the stated consumption of Teslas is according to wikipedia. They have it at 26kWh for 100 miles for the standard range model.

A few questions on the data, if you don't mind sharing.
Is this 189kWh more or less in line with your average monthly consumption for the car? What do you use the car for? (going to work everyday etc?)
What sort of total electricity consumption does your household have? Just trying to figure out where the car usage goes percentage wise. Like I said, for me that would be almost doubling my electricity consumption but then again I don't think I would drive anywhere near that as I live in the middle of the city and I don't need a car for everyday stuff.

[fenders53]

(02-11-2020, 09:35 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Thanks for the data Ron, it's nice to see some real figures! And also looks to be quite in line with what the stated consumption of Teslas is according to wikipedia. They have it at 26kWh for 100 miles for the standard range model.

A few questions on the data, if you don't mind sharing.
Is this 189kWh more or less in line with your average monthly consumption for the car? What do you use the car for? (going to work everyday etc?)
What sort of total electricity consumption does your household have? Just trying to figure out where the car usage goes percentage wise. Like I said, for me that would be almost doubling my electricity consumption but then again I don't think I would drive anywhere near that as I live in the middle of the city and I don't need a car for everyday stuff.

In round numbers that looks like the ICE equivalent of paying about $9 for a full tank of fuel and driving 300 miles.  I can see where an EV fleet would be very economical vs ICE.

[Ron Ricco]

I have the power usage from the last 5 months on my app for the car in kWh. The super off peak rate is 1.41 cents.

189
118
166
112
80

Home usage varies from a peak of about 1500 kWh in the summer to as little as 400 in months where we don’t run AC or heat. We do have natural gas which keeps our usage low in the winter, but obviously gas consumption goes up. We are on the Georgia Power EV plan which incentivizes charging/usage etc on off peak or super off peak times.

Since I got the car in August of 2018, I have put 18507 miles on it. I drive about 80 miles round trip to the airport, but typically that is 1-2 times per week max, although this month I am doing training so I am doing the drive more often. When at home, it is our primary family car.

Plenty of road trips from Atlanta to Starkville MS, Nashville, Savannah, Asheville etc which has also added to the miles.

Over this time I have had zero oil changes, fluid changes, service calls or emissions test which has been nice. I am going to need tires in the next 5000 miles as the regenerative braking does wear down the softer tires which are currently on the car.

[crimsonghost747]

Thanks for those stats. So I guess it looks like anywhere between 10% to over 30% of your total electricity consumption is the car, and that percentage has a lot more to do with your other usage rather than the amount driven. That really isn't too crazy, then again I guess that would be 20-60% if you calculate two cars in the family.

Charging them off peak certainly helps. And it does sound like you really don't have a need to charge during the day unless you are driving a lot. (such as taxis, delivery cars etc)

[Ron Ricco]

(02-12-2020, 12:37 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Thanks for those stats. So I guess it looks like anywhere between 10% to over 30% of your total electricity consumption is the car, and that percentage has a lot more to do with your other usage rather than the amount driven. That really isn't too crazy, then again I guess that would be 20-60% if you calculate two cars in the family.

Charging them off peak certainly helps. And it does sound like you really don't have a need to charge during the day unless you are driving a lot. (such as taxis, delivery cars etc)

The key to much of my charging habits is the range. With 300 mile range,  there hasn’t been a need to charge during the day except if I wanted to get to 100% before taking a trip. (They suggest not letting the batteries sit at 100% for long periods). On road trips we will use the Super Chargers of course.

Once the Model Y is released, we are going to seriously look at trading in the 
wife’s the QX50 for a Y. 

It is really funny to think I have only stopped at a gas station maybe twice in the last 18 months and that was only to grab some coffee etc.