The Speculative Stocks....

[fenders53]

Most all of us have a few speculative stocks in our port.  Please share your favorite MOMO, or busted dreams, deep value yield trap turn-around picks here.

I guess my current fave is Olin OLN.  It's a chemicals company that sells ammo and other product to the US GOV and the recreational shooters.  They own Winchester but it's a small part of their foray.  CFRA has a strong buy opinion on them.  If anybody doesn't have access to CFRA reports I could email some propoganda, err stock research reading material.

I only own 50 shares long but it is volatile and I sell covered puts on every dip with considerable success so far.  In the end I intend to be about 1% of port.  IMO it's only speculative if you pay too much.  Cyclical for sure as they sell chemicals. Did I mention the Div is 5%+ ?

What else you guys and gals got?

[Otter]

CHWY, CRON, SQ are mine.

TSLA Mar 19 2021 300 Put also looking pretty damn speculative at the moment.

[fenders53]

(02-04-2020, 03:44 PM)Otter Wrote: CHWY, CRON, SQ are mine.

TSLA Mar 19 2021 300 Put also looking pretty damn speculative at the moment.

Your TSLA timing needs some serious work lol.  

Any particular reason we should consider buying any of your other specs now?    

While I am here F is pretty speculative.  I'll let you know if I still recommend it after earnings.  I do keep some long shares but I chickened out and bought back a few F puts today while it was still profitable.  The earnings report trust is just not there quite yet lol.  Lovin that F div if you don't get sucked in on a mini rally. They'll pay off that zillion dollar debt pretty soon lol.

[Otter]

The speculative non-DGI stock that is currently on my watch list for a recession purchase is SAVE (Spirit Airlines). These guys have figured out their niche in the aviation market (ULCC carrier, no frills, no promises, just basic transport and lots of a-la-carte options for upsells), and have remained consistently profitable for years:

I've even flown them. Sure, I much prefer redeeming frequent flyer miles for Singapore Suites or JAL First Class, but when Spirit offers their big front seat plus a checked bag upsell for less than mainline carriers want for economy, it is an easy choice. Share price looks tempting now, but will be even more tempting once the next recession hits. Transport stocks really like to go on sale during recessions. 

[NilesMike]

I trade failed reversal patterns on a few names but mainly ES futures. Futures target is for 5 points, stocks target is 3% ish

[NilesMike]

Never have flown Spirit and never will, they cancel a TON of flights-non weather related.

I don't know if there is a statistical source for this data but I'd bet they are the worst in the category.

[Otter]

(02-04-2020, 04:00 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-04-2020, 03:44 PM)Otter Wrote: CHWY, CRON, SQ are mine.

TSLA Mar 19 2021 300 Put also looking pretty damn speculative at the moment.

Your TSLA timing needs some serious work lol.  

Any particular reason we should consider buying any of your other specs now?    

While I am here F is pretty speculative.  I'll let you know if I still recommend it after earnings.  I do keep some long shares but I chickened out and bought back a few F puts today while it was still profitable.  The earnings report trust is just not there quite yet lol.  Lovin that F div if you don't get sucked in on a mini rally.  They'll pay off that zillion dollar debt pretty soon lol.

CHWY I've been adding to for the purposes of dollar-cost-averaging. Got the position down to a respectable -2.84% loss now. Not sure that's a compelling buy thesis. 

CRON was just a WAG with some fun money

I think SQ is going to be a fantastic holding for years to come, assuming they don't get bought out by someone like GOOG/AAPL/AMZN who wants to go heavy into the payments/B2B/loan space all at once. The value was stretched by any traditional metric when I started buying in the $30s. It is still stretched by any traditional metric at $80. 

Valuing these MOMO stocks is a fools' errand. It is gambling. I have a small handful in my portfolio for entertainment, and maybe one goes parabolic like TSLA someday. Majority of my stuff is in boring DGI stocks that would put most day traders and Wall Street Bets folks to sleep.

[Otter]

(02-04-2020, 04:26 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Never have flown Spirit and never will, they cancel a TON of flights-non weather related.

I don't know if there is a statistical source for this data but I'd bet they are the worst in the category.

Statistically, they are middle-of-the-road these days:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/16/best-and...-2019.html

[Otter]

(02-04-2020, 04:00 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-04-2020, 03:44 PM)Otter Wrote: CHWY, CRON, SQ are mine.

TSLA Mar 19 2021 300 Put also looking pretty damn speculative at the moment.

Your TSLA timing needs some serious work lol.  

Any particular reason we should consider buying any of your other specs now?    

While I am here F is pretty speculative.  I'll let you know if I still recommend it after earnings.  I do keep some long shares but I chickened out and bought back a few F puts today while it was still profitable.  The earnings report trust is just not there quite yet lol.  Lovin that F div if you don't get sucked in on a mini rally.  They'll pay off that zillion dollar debt pretty soon lol.

So F's earnings are in. Hot garbage.

[fenders53]

Glad I closed my puts today. I need to keep my F position small. Dividend is the only thing holding it up.

[crimsonghost747]

(02-04-2020, 03:35 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Olin OLN.  It's a chemicals company that sells ammo and other product to the US GOV and the recreational shooters.  They own Winchester but it's a small part of their foray.  CFRA has a strong buy opinion on them.

Sounds like an interesting pick, especially with that nice div yield. I'll definitely take a closer look when I have the time. 

IIPR definitely deserves a mention here. So far, so good. And I do think it still has a lot of room to run if the business keeps performing like it has during the past year. 

MEOH. Swings pretty wildly, for understandable reasons. This is super cyclical, the company looks ok even for a longer term hold, but you really, REALLY, need to pick your entry. (now might not be a horrible time, kinda depends on what happens in China with the virus)

UI. Love it. Love it. Love it. They have their own way of doing things, which leads to ridiculous margins compared to competitors. And apparently their products are both good and cheap, but no first hand experience from that. The long term fundamentals are great but this is not for the faint of heart.



And a bonus for you fenders, because you love things that sound weird.
Sensys Gatso.
Definitely the most speculative one in this post. Trades in Stockholm, Sweden. Totally a microcap stock, not even profitable at the moment. But they are one of the leading names in traffic enforcement technology. (speed cameras, red light cameras, all sorts of funky stuff that sends you a ticket for being a bad person)

[fenders53]

Well my OLN pick was timely lol.  Earnings were rough as the street expected. The have paid dividends for over 90 years straight so I will be adding some shares. They sell chlorine products used for sewage/water treatment. They aren't going out of business.  They are cyclical for sure but they may qualify as a DGI stock if you don't mind some volatility due to their size.  They go ex-div Friday so I won't be surprised if they go lower into next week. 

Probably helpful if we are honest on these spec picks. I'm in OLN sub 15. I'm going to give that back when market opens today. Al of my previous put sales expired worthless, but I now have a few in the money. Premiums are great so I'll roll them forward until I like the entry price.  OLN tends to trade with Dupont and Dow as they should. The next 2nd Amendment drama /ammo hoarding episode will move it too though I'm not so sure that affects fundamentals that much. I have more research to do before I would jump in deep.

Crimson, thanks, I will check out all the picks mentioned on this thread. I have room for about two more specs. Folks are likely to share picks that have already been successful so timing is going to be prudent I suspect. I don't want anyone here to lose money on my great idea from 2018 lol.