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Just did a little bookkeeping regarding the downward move. July 29 to today's close the SPX is down slightly more than 6%.
7 of my holdings are down similarly.
3 are flat
5 are down significantly more the market
4 stocks are up.
The tickers that are up during the down move are BGS, VGR, and O
Flat is D, GIS, T
Down are IBM, MPC, MET, BEN, BUD
Not sure what, if anything can be learned from this but thought it my be of interest.
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08-14-2019, 10:11 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-14-2019, 10:13 PM by fenders53.)
We should do an end of year thread. I believe it's a good idea to assess your performance honestly against the SPX since that can be done with zero effort. And against your goals. My goals are modest as I need a 4% return to meet my retirement fund goal four years from almost exactly one year ago. Last year when I took full control of my GOV and Roth IRA accounts. The goal was to avoid losing money because you shouldn't have to go too wild to get 4% total return. (Lately I am about 50% cash and very short bonds). Anyway, your goal matters when analyzing your personal performance
-since July 29th I am down about 3%.
-Last 12 months (or very close to 365 days) SPX is down about 2%, I am up 3%
I'm calling that a win. Missed my 4% goal but it could be worse. This is 1000% due to the fact I have collected so much income selling puts and calls this year. I purchased some real turkey yield trap stocks right before steep drops. I've done that repeatedly this year I've had covered calls sold against every one of my positions for months. Some of them were in the money so I missed some of the pain. I need to be more patient next time because I was deep in the money on several positions, only a few weeks ago.
It's about time to go shopping with some of this cash.
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I didn’t go back to exactly July 29, but from the high water mark in July I am down around 4%.
YTD, still showing about 11% up and just over 7% from 1 year ago.
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(08-15-2019, 08:33 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: I didn’t go back to exactly July 29, but from the high water mark in July I am down around 4%.
YTD, still showing about 11% up and just over 7% from 1 year ago.
7% is really good Ron. The average index investor has to be sitting really close to even the past 12MO, and maybe down a little. I really think our attraction to dividend stocks is going to help us when the market is rough. There is just no other place to get a safe yield and beat inflation. Bond funds are likely to take a hit at the first sign of good news.
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(08-15-2019, 09:09 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (08-15-2019, 08:33 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: I didn’t go back to exactly July 29, but from the high water mark in July I am down around 4%.
YTD, still showing about 11% up and just over 7% from 1 year ago.
7% is really good Ron. The average index investor has to be sitting really close to even the past 12MO, and maybe down a little. I really think our attraction to dividend stocks is going to help us when the market is rough. There is just no other place to get a safe yield and beat inflation. Bond funds are likely to take a hit at the first sign of good news.
I was a little surprised at the YOY number as the YOD is the default on the fidelity site. Dividend yield is in the high 3s which helps, but I am not sure what stocks carried the rest of the 7% load. I could probably go through and figure it out, but they are most likely the ones falling the fastest now LOL.
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(08-15-2019, 09:09 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (08-15-2019, 08:33 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: I didn’t go back to exactly July 29, but from the high water mark in July I am down around 4%.
YTD, still showing about 11% up and just over 7% from 1 year ago.
7% is really good Ron. The average index investor has to be sitting really close to even the past 12MO, and maybe down a little. I really think our attraction to dividend stocks is going to help us when the market is rough. There is just no other place to get a safe yield and beat inflation. Bond funds are likely to take a hit at the first sign of good news.
I'm still not sure what to make of bonds. The 30-year chart on bonds would suggest that we are still near the top of an unprecedented bond bull market, and that reversion to mean in terms of interest rates will absolutely kill bonds.
That said, long term demographic trends of an aging population and population growth falling to or below replacement levels point to long-term deflationary pressures. Then again, that same aging population will likely create even more government debt through healthcare spending, and that increased debt load will have a less prosperous and smaller cohort of working-age people to support it.
These are also trends that will impact companies with progressive dividend policies. Retirees don't tend to consume as much across all sectors as working age people with kids, which appear to be a diminishing demographic. They may consume more in certain sectors (healthcare), but that increased consumption invites government regulation and price controls (and old people vote).
My magic eight ball says not sure, so I just keep putting money in the pot as often as I can, and hope for the best.
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08-15-2019, 09:27 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2019, 09:28 AM by fenders53.)
(08-15-2019, 09:20 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: (08-15-2019, 09:09 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (08-15-2019, 08:33 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: I didn’t go back to exactly July 29, but from the high water mark in July I am down around 4%.
YTD, still showing about 11% up and just over 7% from 1 year ago.
7% is really good Ron. The average index investor has to be sitting really close to even the past 12MO, and maybe down a little. I really think our attraction to dividend stocks is going to help us when the market is rough. There is just no other place to get a safe yield and beat inflation. Bond funds are likely to take a hit at the first sign of good news.
I was a little surprised at the YOY number as the YOD is the default on the fidelity site. Dividend yield is in the high 3s which helps, but I am not sure what stocks carried the rest of the 7% load. I could probably go through and figure it out, but they are most likely the ones falling the fastest now LOL.
Yes, back when I was more aggressively invested I was definitely a "jeanyus" one month and a fool the next. I really want to add a few more aggressive growth stocks but I am going to continue to be patient. It's breath taking how fast you can give up a years gains if you aren't careful with your entry price.
So Ladies and Gentlemen, what would you buy? On my radar are: MMM, EMN, LEG, SKT, CMI, these are available at a historically high yield. So are Canadian banks. MO is crazy good in my opinion. One company I just disovered and trying to get familiar with is MEOH.
What companies are on your watch lists?
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MMM and CAT are getting close. A few more bad market days in a row would make my list much longer. Hopefully we will see the peak in tariffs soon. If earnings estimates are going to be revised downward, that would be a good time to initiate some initial positions IMO.
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These analysts haven't even lowered numbers yet for these companies to reflect tariffs. You wont see these companies getting really affected until 2020
MMM is not on my shopping list yet because I see things getting worse there and management is horrible. If it gets under $140 I will take a position.Think about this. MMM was doing bad even when there wasn't any tariffs lol. Plus 50% of their business is outside the US.
Ones that are right near my buy in targets - CMI, CAT, EMN, ROK, CAH, CSCO MO, and VNO (i'm sure there's lost more now with the market down 600 lol)
I'm just glad I bought Gold stocks a few months back. They have really helped offset my losses. This sector will continue to outperform the market.
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Living to 150 years??!! lol
There's a lot to like...MO/ADM/KR/EMR/CAH/WBA/CVS/AOS/ETN/GILD/ABBV....pipelines, oil and gas companies, defense contractors/Boeing! etc etc etc
but one that I've started a small position not that long ago and my newest new buy is ALB...this is a long term play for me...obviously
I'm also thinking about some Chinese stocks even though I think we shouldn't even make a deal with China...China is bad, very very very bad....Bad China...But it's always about the greenback, the almighty dollar, and making a buck even while risking long term safety, technology, democracy, freedom....whatever...in order to make a buck or short term gain...nothing is off the table. A deal will be made and they won't abide by it--it's who they are...It's like Nick Foles, I don't care he helped the Eagles win a Super Bowl, he's a solid backup and that's where he'll fall in line, this starting position might end up ending his career for good.
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(08-24-2019, 09:33 AM)divmenow Wrote: These analysts haven't even lowered numbers yet for these companies to reflect tariffs. You wont see these companies getting really affected until 2020
MMM is not on my shopping list yet because I see things getting worse there and management is horrible. If it gets under $140 I will take a position.Think about this. MMM was doing bad even when there wasn't any tariffs lol. Plus 50% of their business is outside the US.
Ones that are right near my buy in targets - CMI, CAT, EMN, ROK, CAH, CSCO MO, and VNO (i'm sure there's lost more now with the market down 600 lol)
I'm just glad I bought Gold stocks a few months back. They have really helped offset my losses. This sector will continue to outperform the market.
Are you getting me back for the GE comment on the insider buys thread?  MMM is on and off my shopping list. Your points are well taken. I am going to wade in at some point. It's way too early to dive.
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