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I'm not going to hold my breath for the $50s, but just added a little below $62.
I'm not saying $50s is impossible -- if the economy stalls retail could get hit really hard. And I'm not too keen on loading up on retail generally in this age of online ascendance. Still, I think TGT is a sound business and I'm happy to round out my small position as the price falls.
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Was tempted today by TGT, but think I will wait until their next earnings report
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What I find interesting with the security breach is that it is a true black swan event. You hear people say what happened in 2008 was a black swan, but most people knew there was a serious problem. In that case, it was an excuse, not reality.
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I just bought another handful of TGT shares at $59.19. I'm still not up to what I'd consider a "full" position, and I will consider buying more if the price keeps going down. I don't love TGT in the same way that I love, say, JNJ or KO, but this is very much starting to feel to me like one of those really nice opportunities. I can imagine several years from now saying "I wouldn't buy TGT here in the mid-$80s, but it was a real deal back around $60 when everyone was freaking out about that data breach thing."
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And people thought it would never see the $50's...
Earnings are probably going to be terrible for Q4 and the way the rest of retail is trading, pretty bad for Q1 as well. I'm guessing all of this bitterly cold weather in the eastern half of the country is going to weigh on the retailers. Still holding TGT and re-investing dividends, but probably a month or two away from the bottom here in my opinion.
On a side note, wouldn't it be better to consolidate threads? There are currently 3 different threads going on Target. Its easier to keep up with the ongoing discussion if its not spread out in so many places.
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In seeing more and more problems with retail sales I am beginning to wonder if Amazon isn't taking a bigger piece of the pie than people realize. Walmart has fared better than others because of their large percentage of sales in grocery, but there are very few discount retailers and department stores doing well right now.
According to yahoo finance, Amazon had over $70 billion in revenue over the last 12 months and that number grew about 24% YoY. That number is similar to Target, which had about $74 billion in revenue, however that number only grew by about 2% YoY.
Just looking at myself, I've bought more stuff from Amazon in the last 9 months than I did with all previous purchases from there. Free shipping with Amazon Prime is hard to pass up.
Anyways, just some thoughts going through my head.
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Good points, Eric. We've moved a ton of our shopping to Amazon too, much of it at Target's expense. (We use the Prime "Subscribe and Save" program for a lot of staples that we used to pick up at our local Target.)
If only Amazon was fairly priced and paid ever-growing dividends!
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I just group my purchases and always get free shipping at over $35. We also use subscribe and save for quite a few items, getting a 15% discount plus free shipping.
Alex
