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12-22-2018, 08:59 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-22-2018, 09:06 AM by fenders53.)
(12-22-2018, 04:42 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: That's what I love about this one.
There is no reason other than "stocks are expensive, interest rates are going up" which makes it a good buying opportunity if it keeps going. But it's true, stocks were a bit too expensive so this is a welcome move.
Personally I haven't touched my cash reserves yet but the time to start may be soon.
I haven't touched the cash I have in my emergency crash bucket. I had other money I wanted to get into equities and clearly got too aggressive with it a few weeks ago. A lot of investors are leaving the equity markets for safety. Buying the dip hasn't worked for three months. Perhaps we are seeing some capitulation now. Nothing survives a real bear market. A few sectors and individual stocks are still hanging on, but the list is getting really short now. I just checked CNBC and it appears my crystal ball is correct about the Prez wanting to fire the FED Chief now. That will be easier said than done. More noise for the markets.
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I usually kick myself for not taking advantage of solid dips / corrections. I hem and haw and nibble until prices go back up and then wonder what I was so timid for. So I'm planning to be more aggressive than normal (for me) this week, if the current prices persist or fall further. My shopping list: XOM, T, GIS, BUD, and maybe even a little more MO. Oh, and a few shares of GOOG for giggles.
Yes, if prices keep falling, I'll wish I had waited. But I have a fair amount of dry powder, so I could keep buying in that case. With consensus so overwhelmingly in the "recession is inevitable and imminent" camp, though, it seems to me that we could be on the verge of a big rally.
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12-23-2018, 02:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-23-2018, 02:53 PM by fenders53.)
Your tendency towards a heavier cash position will have it's disadvantages in total returns over time, but it's perfect for a situation like this. I see no problem nibbling now, as long as you have dry powder for the "big one" if it comes in 2019. IMO you'd be foolish to do otherwise. 90% of the media is in Armageddon mode, so just maybe we are due for a big bounce? It would be a lost opportunity to sit on your hands buying nothing now.
On a side note it's raining lemons so I am going to make some lemonade this week. I have one account that is taxable with recent losses in MO,T, and F. I will dump them this week and replace with a high div ETF that owns them all. Capture the tax losses and offset my rental property income this year. Only thing that made a real profit in 2018. Might as well dodge income taxes since it;s easy and pretty much risk free. I own plenty of those stocks in my IRA anyway, and if they should run quick, which I highly doubt, I won't miss out because the ETF will capture most of it to include dividends. The little moves add up in the end.
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Whether this was just a quick bounce in the middle of a continuing downward trend, or the start of a new uptrend, you've gotta be impressed by today's move up. That was wild!
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Yes it was. I was wondering when we might have a 1000 point day, but UP wouldn't have been my guess. My prediction for 2019 is a new record for 500pt intra-day swings. I'm afraid the algo moves are here to stay unless the SEC tightens up the trading curbs. I guess I can't blame the traders for doing it. The daily news noise is there to feed it most every day. Some of these large caps could be scalped for a couple points 10 times a week.
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Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
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(12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
No one in government can work with this guy. (fixed it for you)
https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/blog...hieve.html
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(12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
No one is buying and no one cares about the market anymore. Computers are in control. Nothing is based on fundamentals any longer. That's just the market we are in right now. AAPL may never see $200 again, LMT $300 and the list goes on. Reminds me of INTC, DELL and CPQ when they were trading at over $200 back in 2008-2009 when the internet boom crashed. Those stocks never saw those levels again. I'm in AAPL at an average of $192 and I will not add any more. For all we know it can go back to $80-90 a share. I can sit here and say there are so many good buys in the market. But I just feel we are headed lower so why bother lol. In the past few weeks I have added to utilities and bought some gold. Yes I said Gold stocks haha!!
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The machines may be in charge when AAPL PE is a lot lower than oatmeal companies. 
(12-27-2018, 02:02 PM)divmenow Wrote: (12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
No one is buying and no one cares about the market anymore. Computers are in control. Nothing is based on fundamentals any longer. That's just the market we are in right now. AAPL may never see $200 again, LMT $300 and the list goes on. Reminds me of INTC, DELL and CPQ when they were trading at over $200 back in 2008-2009 when the internet boom crashed. Those stocks never saw those levels again. I'm in AAPL at an average of $192 and I will not add any more. For all we know it can go back to $80-90 a share. I can sit here and say there are so many good buys in the market. But I just feel we are headed lower so why bother lol. In the past few weeks I have added to utilities and bought some gold. Yes I said Gold stocks haha!!
I don't get you. First - this is just volatility after two years of no volatility. Secnd - you don't know the future. A year or two ago AAPL was meant to never cross 150 ever. It went far above it. Third - price is not the same as fundamentals. Fourth - Apple had a high PE. Look at the past few years, it went from a PE of 12-15 average to almost 20. What did you expect, that it will stay there whereas the average has always been far below? Fifth - if you believe in the company and you thought that a 200 usd price is justified this is a buying opportunity for you. The company did not change, the price did. And I am actually happy because of that.
Sixth - aren't we all dividend invwstors? Apple has a short dividend history so it is questionable why I buy it, but apart from that isn't it the income why we are here? This dip or bear market or however you may call it is one huge step towards financial independence or retirement or whatever is the reason you do it. If you are pissed aboit the price decline you are a speculator and not an investor.
I could only wish for more of that in 2019 - growing cash flows and declining prices.
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(12-27-2018, 03:24 PM)Binary Wrote: (12-27-2018, 02:02 PM)divmenow Wrote: (12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
No one is buying and no one cares about the market anymore. Computers are in control. Nothing is based on fundamentals any longer. That's just the market we are in right now. AAPL may never see $200 again, LMT $300 and the list goes on. Reminds me of INTC, DELL and CPQ when they were trading at over $200 back in 2008-2009 when the internet boom crashed. Those stocks never saw those levels again. I'm in AAPL at an average of $192 and I will not add any more. For all we know it can go back to $80-90 a share. I can sit here and say there are so many good buys in the market. But I just feel we are headed lower so why bother lol. In the past few weeks I have added to utilities and bought some gold. Yes I said Gold stocks haha!!
I don't get you. First - this is just volatility after two years of no volatility. Secnd - you don't know the future. A year or two ago AAPL was meant to never cross 150 ever. It went far above it. Third - price is not the same as fundamentals. Fourth - Apple had a high PE. Look at the past few years, it went from a PE of 12-15 average to almost 20. What did you expect, that it will stay there whereas the average has always been far below? Fifth - if you believe in the company and you thought that a 200 usd price is justified this is a buying opportunity for you. The company did not change, the price did. And I am actually happy because of that.
Sixth - aren't we all dividend invwstors? Apple has a short dividend history so it is questionable why I buy it, but apart from that isn't it the income why we are here? This dip or bear market or however you may call it is one huge step towards financial independence or retirement or whatever is the reason you do it. If you are pissed aboit the price decline you are a speculator and not an investor.
I could only wish for more of that in 2019 - growing cash flows and declining prices.
Wow someone must have gotten coal this year for Christmas lol. I had an opinion weather you agreed or not. And what I said was what a lot investor feel right now. Nothing I said was mean at all;that needed a response like I got from you. So don't lash out at me for having an opinion. My god what has this world come to lol!! Sorry I spoke out. And by no means am I pissed off our upset that the market is down big or not. I can care less. I have been invested since 1991. But in the end its all about making money. Dividend or not. And you say Apple went from 12-20 PE bet yet you added at 204 or so lol. A 20 pe is not expensive as long as your growing to support those levels. And this market is no where near based on fundamentals. Its all political right now. Truth~ But its cool. You got your opinion too  Happy Holidays!
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(12-27-2018, 03:54 PM)divmenow Wrote: (12-27-2018, 03:24 PM)Binary Wrote: (12-27-2018, 02:02 PM)divmenow Wrote: (12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
No one is buying and no one cares about the market anymore. Computers are in control. Nothing is based on fundamentals any longer. That's just the market we are in right now. AAPL may never see $200 again, LMT $300 and the list goes on. Reminds me of INTC, DELL and CPQ when they were trading at over $200 back in 2008-2009 when the internet boom crashed. Those stocks never saw those levels again. I'm in AAPL at an average of $192 and I will not add any more. For all we know it can go back to $80-90 a share. I can sit here and say there are so many good buys in the market. But I just feel we are headed lower so why bother lol. In the past few weeks I have added to utilities and bought some gold. Yes I said Gold stocks haha!!
I don't get you. First - this is just volatility after two years of no volatility. Secnd - you don't know the future. A year or two ago AAPL was meant to never cross 150 ever. It went far above it. Third - price is not the same as fundamentals. Fourth - Apple had a high PE. Look at the past few years, it went from a PE of 12-15 average to almost 20. What did you expect, that it will stay there whereas the average has always been far below? Fifth - if you believe in the company and you thought that a 200 usd price is justified this is a buying opportunity for you. The company did not change, the price did. And I am actually happy because of that.
Sixth - aren't we all dividend invwstors? Apple has a short dividend history so it is questionable why I buy it, but apart from that isn't it the income why we are here? This dip or bear market or however you may call it is one huge step towards financial independence or retirement or whatever is the reason you do it. If you are pissed aboit the price decline you are a speculator and not an investor.
I could only wish for more of that in 2019 - growing cash flows and declining prices.
Wow someone must have gotten coal this year for Christmas lol. I had an opinion weather you agreed or not. And what I said was what a lot investor feel right now. Nothing I said was mean at all;that needed a response like I got from you. So don't lash out at me for having an opinion. My god what has this world come to lol!! Sorry I spoke out. And by no means am I pissed off our upset that the market is down big or not. I can care less. I have been invested since 1991. But in the end its all about making money. Dividend or not. And you say Apple went from 12-20 PE bet yet you added at 204 or so lol. A 20 pe is not expensive as long as your growing to support those levels. And this market is no where near based on fundamentals. Its all political right now. Truth~ But its cool. You got your opinion too Happy Holidays!
You guys should debate and get pissed off more lol. The market rallied like 700 points off the lows today. Keep it up
Added to T today
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