TGT getting Crushed - Down $5 PM

[divmenow]

(01-22-2017, 06:28 AM)Forticus Wrote: Retail is second on my research list to establish a watch list. The recent drop of TGT and a possible forward yield of 3,9% (increase 5% in 2017) caught my eye. I didn't throw it.  

A quick 11-checks scored screen on all Consumer Discretionary and Staples on the CCC table: "winner" of all Consumer Industries is TGT with a score of 76% (42 of 55 points).

A different 11-check (non-graded: yes or failed, includes only three checks of the first)  is biased towards fundamental analysis and should help me decide, whether I start the analysis of 10 annual reports, meant to look for businesses that increase their bookvalue over decades. An eyeball's test of 10 years data in stockrover gives ...
TGT get's 5,5 of 11. A meager 50%.
Growth : 0 of 4
Fin. Health : 3 of 4
Profitablilty : 1,5 of 3

Gliding 5yrs averages seem to wave up and down around 2% (revenues) and 5% (earnings).
Where would expectations of dividend growth higher than 5% come from?
Looks like a boring average business that goes along with inflation. So in some way it could increase its value while paying me.
It also may be a counterweight to less boring members of my portfolio, such as ABBV, GILD, SU.

With a current forward total yield (EY+EY) > 12% and a prospected 5yr total return > 12% (Fastgraphs, 3rd future graph)
I am tempted to skip analysis of 10 years of annual reports (which I havent done for ABBV, GILD, SU).

[divmenow]

(02-28-2017, 07:16 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(01-22-2017, 06:28 AM)Forticus Wrote: Retail is second on my research list to establish a watch list. The recent drop of TGT and a possible forward yield of 3,9% (increase 5% in 2017) caught my eye. I didn't throw it.  

A quick 11-checks scored screen on all Consumer Discretionary and Staples on the CCC table: "winner" of all Consumer Industries is TGT with a score of 76% (42 of 55 points).

A different 11-check (non-graded: yes or failed, includes only three checks of the first)  is biased towards fundamental analysis and should help me decide, whether I start the analysis of 10 annual reports, meant to look for businesses that increase their bookvalue over decades. An eyeball's test of 10 years data in stockrover gives ...
TGT get's 5,5 of 11. A meager 50%.
Growth : 0 of 4
Fin. Health : 3 of 4
Profitablilty : 1,5 of 3

Gliding 5yrs averages seem to wave up and down around 2% (revenues) and 5% (earnings).
Where would expectations of dividend growth higher than 5% come from?
Looks like a boring average business that goes along with inflation. So in some way it could increase its value while paying me.
It also may be a counterweight to less boring members of my portfolio, such as ABBV, GILD, SU.

With a current forward total yield (EY+EY) > 12% and a prospected 5yr total return > 12% (Fastgraphs, 3rd future graph)
I am tempted to skip analysis of 10 years of annual reports (which I havent done for ABBV, GILD, SU).

TGT down nearly $10 in pre-market under $57. SS #'s were ugly. Anyone buying at these levels. May take a position at these levels now.

[ExDripper]

(01-19-2017, 11:36 AM)EricL Wrote: I posted this another thread, but copying it here to keep it with this discussion.

For all of the claims of disaster for TGT, analysts are still expecting profits to be 11% higher than 2016, and are expecting another 5% of growth in 2018.

The company has been paying growing dividends for the last 48 years, the payout ratio is reasonable, and I think there is a decent chance of at least 5% dividend growth going forward.

A 3.6% yield isn't a bad place to start. I don't think it is a screaming buy here, but I can see why people are getting interested. Retail is a tough business, but Target has shown through the years that it can navigate through the changes. While I haven't put any new funds into the stock, I plan to continue holding and reinvesting my dividends.

Eric & everyone,

In my opinion,Target stock would soar if the board dumped the CEO. Their decline this year is tied to the CEO's determination to interject his strong social justice opinion into the business and then not back off when the backlash started in April. Target isn't the only company to suffer this way and I don't understand why boards/shareholders don't raise Cain over it. They're in business to make money for the shareholders, not alienate half of their customers.

I'm tempted to buy a small position, but there are other companies I'm interested in as well as adding to existing positions so I'll probably pass again.

[Rasec]

The CEO needs to go, yes, but for a different reason! The CEO's problem is not social causes but the fact that they can't commit to a strategy.

Enter Canada... leave Canada...
Raise prices, raise margens... drop prices, lower margins...
Bet on online (their online experience truly sucks, it's actually embarrassing!!! As a shareholder it makes me sad how bad it is, I honestly don't know how anyone uses their online platform for anything other than presenting a bad example!)
Small stores... big stores...

They are entrenched by Amazon on convenience, Wallmart on prices, all sort of specialized retail stores on household goods which offer a much better experience... so what does Target have to offer? Apart from volatility in strategy and orientation?

I was sad with them before... I'm even more sad now...