TGT getting Crushed - Down $5 PM

[divmenow]

I know a lot of you bought on the last decline. Numbers lowered. Adding more shares??

[Rasec]

This drop put TGT at my cost basis so I'm not adding more unless it'd drop another 10% (let's hope not).

To put things in perspective, TGT is still about 3% up month to date and 6.5% YTD, even with today's drop.

[Jimbo]

I bought a small stake back at 56.66 and sold at 80's. Put the funds elsewhere. GL to all.

[benjamen]

Good article I ran across that sums up Target's issues right now:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4000824-...l-mart-bad

[Rasec]

I'm getting really tired with TGT, all this volatility in guidance makes me question the Board's ability to run the business. I think I'll unload my position this year and move on from retail entirely.

[Kerim]

(01-18-2017, 01:03 PM)Rasec Wrote: I think I'll unload my position this year and move on from retail entirely.

I think about this all the time. In my ongoing musings about what it means to "buy only the best quality companies," I often wonder if there is any place for retail in my portfolio. I barely go into stores myself anymore -- only when I want/need something in the next few hours. Not that such an anecdote is meaningful. I think my only pure retail holdings right now are TGT and WBA.

[DividendGarden]

(01-18-2017, 03:43 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(01-18-2017, 01:03 PM)Rasec Wrote: I think I'll unload my position this year and move on from retail entirely.

I think about this all the time. In my ongoing musings about what it means to "buy only the best quality companies," I often wonder if there is any place for retail in my portfolio. I barely go into stores myself anymore -- only when I want/need something in the next few hours. Not that such an anecdote is meaningful. I think my only pure retail holdings right now are TGT and WBA.

Same here.  My only retail is WMT and LB, and I definitely don't want any more retail.

[divmenow]

TGT is finished. They spent all that money on the online business and it has not paid off. Amazon has put a big dent in all these box and specialty retailers and most wont be around in 3-5 years. Malls are dead and target is like a ghost town overtime I walk in. And I'm there twice a a week. The only retailers I will own nowadays at WMT and CVS.

[Rasec]

CVS and WBA I wouldn't consider pure retailers, at least not on the same sense I think of TGT or Macy's or Kohl's, etc.

[EricL]

I posted this another thread, but copying it here to keep it with this discussion.

For all of the claims of disaster for TGT, analysts are still expecting profits to be 11% higher than 2016, and are expecting another 5% of growth in 2018.

The company has been paying growing dividends for the last 48 years, the payout ratio is reasonable, and I think there is a decent chance of at least 5% dividend growth going forward.

A 3.6% yield isn't a bad place to start. I don't think it is a screaming buy here, but I can see why people are getting interested. Retail is a tough business, but Target has shown through the years that it can navigate through the changes. While I haven't put any new funds into the stock, I plan to continue holding and reinvesting my dividends.

[rayray]

I'm a fan of Target, there are three in my area and every one is crowded no matter what day of the week nor time. Two parts to Target, the store then the real estate, similar to McDonald's. If it gets to a 4 plus yield I'll purchase more.

On a side note, I shop online for certain things; however, for most things call me old school, I like to see it and touch it before I buy it. I'll be that way till the day I die, it won't change.

[Forticus]

Retail is second on my research list to establish a watch list. The recent drop of TGT and a possible forward yield of 3,9% (increase 5% in 2017) caught my eye. I didn't throw it.

A quick 11-checks scored screen on all Consumer Discretionary and Staples on the CCC table: "winner" of all Consumer Industries is TGT with a score of 76% (42 of 55 points).

A different 11-check (non-graded: yes or failed, includes only three checks of the first) is biased towards fundamental analysis and should help me decide, whether I start the analysis of 10 annual reports, meant to look for businesses that increase their bookvalue over decades. An eyeball's test of 10 years data in stockrover gives ...
TGT get's 5,5 of 11. A meager 50%.
Growth : 0 of 4
Fin. Health : 3 of 4
Profitablilty : 1,5 of 3

Gliding 5yrs averages seem to wave up and down around 2% (revenues) and 5% (earnings).
Where would expectations of dividend growth higher than 5% come from?
Looks like a boring average business that goes along with inflation. So in some way it could increase its value while paying me.
It also may be a counterweight to less boring members of my portfolio, such as ABBV, GILD, SU.

With a current forward total yield (EY+EY) > 12% and a prospected 5yr total return > 12% (Fastgraphs, 3rd future graph)
I am tempted to skip analysis of 10 years of annual reports (which I havent done for ABBV, GILD, SU).