2020 Covid-19 Recession

[fenders53]

I struggle with the desire to own almost all the major pharmas. I guess ABBV is on the list.

[fenders53]

Any opinions on whether or not we are going to ratchet up trade tensions with China? That affects some of my near-term purchase (and possible sale) decisions. I see no need to put my investments in peril when it's avoidable.

*As a side note I am glad this place does not get overly political. For the record I don't hate the president but I get weary of the political rhetoric and I fear we are going to punch China in the face at a VERY bad time as our economy struggles. I probably better get used to it with an election approaching.

[EricL]

(05-15-2020, 06:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Any opinions on whether or not we are going to ratchet up trade tensions with China? That affects some of my near-term purchase (and possible sale) decisions. I see no need to put my investments in peril when it's avoidable.

*As a side note I am glad this place does not get overly political. For the record I don't hate the president but I get weary of the political rhetoric and I fear we are going to punch China in the face at a VERY bad time as our economy struggles. I probably better get used to it with an election approaching.

Yes, I think trade tensions with China are going to ratchet up more. I think this epidemic was a huge wake-up call that outsourcing all of your country's manufacturing is a horrible idea.

It's one thing to do that with a country you can trust, but I don't trust China. At all.

I expect the president is going to do all he can to get critical pharma, tech, and equipment manufacturing back to the Unites State ASAP.

[fenders53]

(05-15-2020, 08:23 AM)EricL Wrote:

(05-15-2020, 06:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Any opinions on whether or not we are going to ratchet up trade tensions with China?  That affects some of my near-term purchase (and possible sale) decisions.  I see no need to put my investments in peril when it's avoidable.  

*As a side note I am glad this place does not get overly political.  For the record I don't hate the president but I get weary of the political rhetoric and I fear we are going to punch China in the face at a VERY bad time as our economy struggles.  I probably better get used to it with an election approaching.

Yes, I think trade tensions with China are going to ratchet up more. I think this epidemic was a huge wake-up call that outsourcing all of your country's manufacturing is a horrible idea.

It's one thing to do that with a country you can trust, but I don't trust China. At all.

I expect the president is going to do all he can to get critical pharma, tech, and equipment manufacturing back to the Unites State ASAP.

That seems doable for pharma.  It would seem tech could at least spread it out to other countries. Not holding my breath for a big shift in heavy manufacturing this decade.  The GOV would have to fund it, and we would have to warm up to some serious inflation.  I think the horse is out of the barn on globalism and just spreading it out is where we'll head for now.  Part of my port is not looking forward to the election season.  Economy is shot until well past November and this is the only way I see left to fire up the base.  He doesn't have to do it anything close to right, he just has to raise hell for now.  He is good at that so I'll fasten my seat belt. 

[EricL]

News out this morning:

Taiwan Semiconductor confirms $12B U.S. plant

Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), a major supplier to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), has confirmed plans to build a $12B chip factory in Arizona as the U.S. tries to wrestle global supply chains back from China.

The plant, which would create over 1,600 jobs, will produce the most sophisticated 5-nanometer chips that can be used in high-end defense and communications devices.

The Trump administration is also in talks with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) about new foundries. While the company has major manufacturing operations in the U.S., it supplies only its own chips rather than making them for outside customers.

[fenders53]

That makes sense for devices which require the highest security. It will be interesting to see how the other big guys like AAPL, NVDIA, AMD and MU react. AAPL is very married to China for manufacturing. You know they don't want to give up the huge China retail either and they will immediately revolt if/when they bail.

[fenders53]

Update I pulled from another thread for VBIN> He stated.......

"Talking to some of my friends seems like Covid will continue well into 2022 even with vaccine. It's a virus after all and they mutate and don't disappear just like that. It will become less deadly as human body adapts and herd immunity develops.

People are getting less and less cautious and trying to be more out and about. 2021 beyond travel will start going up and people won't be as afraid to eat out or social."

That sounds reasonable enough to me VBIN. Just as you state, it's a virus, an incredibly contagious rough version of the flu. The Spanish Flu took three years. If we fail to get an effect vaccine I see no reason it goes away much fast. We need therapeutics to increase survival rate even further in the susceptible. They are making progress, and much more is needed. I do have some confidence in our MED Tech. Not so sure about a vaccine with sufficient efficacy, soon enough to help. I hope we'll know soon.

For now I think I act like an average responsible 58yr old. I am NOT hiding in my closet, but I know I would likely kill or at least put my mother and wife in ICU if I gave them the virus. I wear my mask and socially distance at work. Go out to eat once a month rather than five times. No bars, huge gatherings. When the virus spikes locally I get a little more careful, but never reckless even when it isn't. I vote for no overzealous lockdowns, but don't be stupid when the virus is spiking around you, just because it won't kill you personally. That's not liberty, it's pure selfishness, and that is not what I want me country to be. I don't care who disagrees with me.

Sorry for the politics (not really because it shouldn't be politics). I have some friends and relatives that deeply disappoint me right now. Nobody is asking for any great sacrifice from them.

[rayray]

(11-01-2020, 09:00 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Update I pulled from another thread for VBIN>  He stated.......

"Talking to some of my friends seems like Covid will continue well into 2022 even with vaccine. It's a virus after all and they mutate and don't disappear just like that. It will become less deadly as human body adapts and herd immunity develops.

People are getting less and less cautious and trying to be more out and about. 2021 beyond travel will start going up and people won't be as afraid to eat out or social."

That sounds reasonable enough to me VBIN.  Just as you state, it's a virus, an incredibly contagious rough version of the flu.  The Spanish Flu took three years. If we fail to get an effect vaccine I see no reason it goes away much fast.  We need therapeutics to increase survival rate even further in the susceptible.  They are making progress, and much more is needed.  I do have some confidence in our MED Tech.  Not so sure about a vaccine with sufficient efficacy, soon enough to help.  I hope we'll know soon.

For now I think I act like an average responsible 58yr old.  I am NOT hiding in my closet, but I know I would likely kill or at least put my mother and wife in ICU if I gave them the virus.  I wear my mask and socially distance at work.  Go out to eat once a month rather than five times.  No bars, huge gatherings.  When the virus spikes locally I get a little more careful, but never reckless even when it isn't.  I vote for no overzealous lockdowns, but don't be stupid when the virus is spiking around you, just because it won't kill you personally.  That's not liberty, it's pure selfishness, and that is not what I want me country to be.  I don't care who disagrees with me.

Sorry for the politics (not really because it shouldn't be politics).   I have some friends and relatives that deeply disappoint me right now.  Nobody is asking for any great sacrifice from them.

 
I pretty much agree with you guys and I'm in a similar boat regarding my step father who i love dearly.

Maybe, just maybe anti-virals will be the way to fight this cornavirus because of the mutations

[fenders53]

If 50% of the population voluntarily took a vaccine with only 50% efficacy, it seems we have just immunized 25% of the population. A lot less people spreading it round. With the current spike, a lot of people will have had Covid by year end. That gives me hope this gets notably better instead of worse fairly soon. It seems clear the death rate is way down and the cases really aren't. Seems like we are heading in the right direction with treatments.

Now I guess we soon learn if the stock market has outrun the economic recovery rate. It probably has if they don't juice it again soon. Doesn't seem like a good idea to wait until FEB.

[vbin]

Here you go fenders.

Jeffrey Gundlach advocating that equities will trade at single PE. It can happen In a month, 6 month, 18,24. But definitely not taking another decade. Treasuries markets are dead right now( make sense low interest rates). A lot more bbb to junk downgrades coming. Lot more deliquencies, shutdowns, business closures. Advocating for not to put more than 25% in equities. I am still ~40% cash.

Corona coming back in bigger waves.

News papers reporting Trump pushing for coup.

WHO says vaccine not enough.

S&P PE is pretty high.

Markets not budging.

How does this makes sense?

[fenders53]

JPM says negative GDP growth Q1 2021. I believe that. The market doesn't care yet. This is the death blow to certain industries if the GOV doesn't save them (and consumers), with a flood of cash. I am being very careful what I buy now, or sell a put in. Some of my high yield CEFs are flying. My sell button is getting itchy. I have sold covered calls on a lot of my port again. I may well regret that. It won't save me, but the income is nice for buying more shares.

[vbin]

Michael Burry shorts tesla. I am just excited to see how this will play out. Off course none of the numbers or fanfare or anything with tesla makes sense . All hype but it's been heck of a run.