VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

Saw an article on CNBC. Assuming no new incentives from GOV. 3-4% renewables growth projections for 2021 and a little less in 2022. This is for power generation only. Should finally surpass coal. Seem like rational numbers to me.

[EricL]

Floating storage levels back down to within normal range.

[fenders53]

Sounds like we are going to open up contracts to drill the Arctic reserve wildlife refuge. As a fly fisherman who has enjoyed Alaska three times the past few years, can anyone explain why that is necessary or even financially prudent in this supply environment? You are probably all aware every AK citizen get an annual subsidy/royalty check from oil sales. During booms it's pretty good money but not much the past few 4+ years of course. This is my nature boy side talking. They can probably drill it without wrecking the region. It just needs to come with regulations which is a dirty word in the current administration. I have no idea how much doing it responsibly affects production costs. My truthful first response is why in the hell do we need more supply anytime soon?

[vbin]

India announces to double oil refining capacity in next 5 years which is a much more aggressive than previous plan. Chinese set to eclipse america and become #1 oil refiner in world.

2 largest pop nations still investing in oil capacity. Oil is here to stay. Only question still remain if post-covid companies can ramp up production with increased demand and again start pushing oil prices down sooner than expected.

[fenders53]

(11-22-2020, 12:48 PM)vbin Wrote: India announces to double oil refining capacity in next 5 years which is a much more aggressive than previous plan. Chinese set to eclipse america and become #1 oil refiner in world.

2 largest pop nations still investing in oil capacity. Oil is here to stay. Only question still remain if post-covid companies can ramp up production with increased demand and again start pushing oil prices down sooner than expected.

 And what WILL they do in any case?  Makes a world of difference if OPEC pumps at 80% capacity or 100% for months on end coming out of the pandemic.  I am pretty sure they aren't interested in oil at $20 again, but there is strategy involved in this, ALWAYS.  They'd probably prefer oil a dollar under the price that encourages new fracking.  Biden's words don't scare me so much yet.  He can make more restrictive rules that don't really alter total US output so much.  That is what I expect actually. If there is one thing I am sure of, it's that politicians put considerable effort into policies that don't turn out quite like they intended, or pretend to intend.

It will be interesting to look back on this thread in 2022.

[vbin]

well, oil having a great run past week and today. I added some psxp in my kids account. @Fenders, I am ok to wait till 2025.

[fenders53]

(11-23-2020, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote: well, oil having a great run past week and today. I added some psxp in my kids account. @Fenders, I am ok to wait till 2025.

Take my comments in context.  I invested just like that for decades.  As  I approach retirement, I want a two year narrative or I am better off sucking up put premiums, and it could be on those very same stocks.  Patience is always good, but lost opportunities matter too so I don't want many of those taking up port space.

[vbin]

(11-23-2020, 06:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote: well, oil having a great run past week and today. I added some psxp in my kids account. @Fenders, I am ok to wait till 2025.

Take my comments in context.  I invested just like that for decades.  As  I approach retirement, I want a two year narrative or I am better off sucking up put premiums, and it could be on those very same stocks.  Patience is always good, but lost opportunities matter too so I don't want many of those taking up port space.

Not exactly sure what you mean( I get it that you are still very bearish on oil). Can you help me understand?

[fenders53]

(11-23-2020, 09:15 PM)vbin Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 06:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote: well, oil having a great run past week and today. I added some psxp in my kids account. @Fenders, I am ok to wait till 2025.

Take my comments in context.  I invested just like that for decades.  As  I approach retirement, I want a two year narrative or I am better off sucking up put premiums, and it could be on those very same stocks.  Patience is always good, but lost opportunities matter too so I don't want many of those taking up port space.

Not exactly sure what you mean( I get it that you are still very bearish on oil). Can you help me understand?

Nothing really important, but personal time frame/goal matters.  When this conversation started I was modestly bullish for the next year or two with oil stocks so beat down, and not at all bullish on oil five years out.  Your opinion differs and so does your hold timeframe.

[vbin]

(11-24-2020, 11:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 09:15 PM)vbin Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 06:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote: well, oil having a great run past week and today. I added some psxp in my kids account. @Fenders, I am ok to wait till 2025.

Take my comments in context.  I invested just like that for decades.  As  I approach retirement, I want a two year narrative or I am better off sucking up put premiums, and it could be on those very same stocks.  Patience is always good, but lost opportunities matter too so I don't want many of those taking up port space.

Not exactly sure what you mean( I get it that you are still very bearish on oil). Can you help me understand?

Nothing really important, but personal time frame/goal matters.  When this conversation started I was modestly bullish for the next year or two with oil stocks so beat down, and not at all bullish on oil five years out.  Your opinion differs and so does your hold timeframe.

Oil aint going away so.soon fenders. But what I meant by 5 years is that as long as I can get a good return in next 0-5 years in my oil.investment, I will be happy. Well some of my purchases are already up 50% some are still loosing money, lol.

[fenders53]

(11-24-2020, 12:06 PM)vbin Wrote:

(11-24-2020, 11:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 09:15 PM)vbin Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 06:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote: well, oil having a great run past week and today. I added some psxp in my kids account. @Fenders, I am ok to wait till 2025.

Take my comments in context.  I invested just like that for decades.  As  I approach retirement, I want a two year narrative or I am better off sucking up put premiums, and it could be on those very same stocks.  Patience is always good, but lost opportunities matter too so I don't want many of those taking up port space.

Not exactly sure what you mean( I get it that you are still very bearish on oil). Can you help me understand?

Nothing really important, but personal time frame/goal matters.  When this conversation started I was modestly bullish for the next year or two with oil stocks so beat down, and not at all bullish on oil five years out.  Your opinion differs and so does your hold timeframe.

Oil aint going away so.soon fenders. But what I meant by 5 years is that as long as I can get a good return in next 0-5 years in my oil.investment, I will be happy. Well some of my purchases are already up 50% some are still loosing money, lol.

Scroll back 57 posts.  No oil isn't going away in five years.  I'll fight you before you take my ICE cars.  Neither is the world's ability to get oil out of the ground too fast in an undisciplined manner.  That is all this has been about for years IMO.  Let's drill the arctic refuge next year, cuz that needs done. Nevermind the rest of the world.  We can't stop cutting our own oil throats until the banks want paid.

[vbin]

This doesn't have a lot of data but seems serious https://earther.gizmodo.com/secret-exxon...1845755377

Happy Thanksgiving.