VBIN's oil stock thread.

[vbin]

(02-06-2022, 06:59 AM)fenders53 Wrote: It was priced for bankruptcy. Scary time in oil.

I dint believe it could go bankrupt. Icahan was buying like there is no tomorrow.

[EricL]

The EIA confirmed the bullish draws from yesterday's API report.

Quote:Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending February 4, 2022
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending February 4, 2022 which was 328,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.2% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 0.7 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 12.7% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 514,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 440,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 410.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are about 19% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.1 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.9 million barrels a day, up by 12.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a day, up by 7.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 9.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 30.4% compared with the same four- week period last year.

For comparison's sake, inventory typically builds by about 5.9 million barrels this time of year.

[EricL]

Rumors of Russian incursion into Ukraine.

WTI over $94.

[fenders53]

I took your investment advice and have 6 EOG puts sold. See how bullish I am on oil? Actually that's a little much and hopefully two of them expire Friday.

[vbin]

Oil at 102 today, street saying it’s on the way to 120. Psx, et still look cheap


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fenders53]

(03-01-2022, 10:54 AM)vbin Wrote: Oil at 102 today, street saying it’s on the way to 120. Psx, et still look cheap


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am probably out of the oil business by the end of the week.  Covered calls are going to take me out.  It's been a good ride.  I kept selling EOG puts but I can't chase any higher.  Maybe oil will consolidate soon but it sure doesn't look like it.  I could be wrong, but I am pretty sure I have never seen oil run this hard offseason.

[EricL]

Oil futures over $108 after another big draw in storage from the API report. If EIA confirms tomorrow, the price probably sticks and continues to rise.

We are supposed to be building stocks in storage this time of year ahead of increased demand for the summer driving season, not having total draws of nearly 10 million barrels.

The market is in structural deficit already. If Russian crude exports are removed, I don't even want to guess how high crude could go, and what impact that would have on already runaway inflation.

Quote:API

• Crude -6.1mm (+2.8mm exp) - biggest draw since September
  
  
• Cushing -1mm
  
  
• Gasoline -2.5mm
  
  
• Distillates +0.4mm
  

Crude inventories saw a huge drawdown last week (the most since September) according to API. This was a major divergence from the expected build...

Coal prices are also surging. I've been buying BTU of late, and will likely add to both it and more of my oil stocks in my trading account.

Another great read from Goehring and Rozencwajg for anyone interested.


  2021.Q4 GR Market Commentary.pdf (Size: 589.19 KB / Downloads: 0)

[vbin]

@EricL what oil tikrs you looking at currently? Thoughts on psx, et, oxy?

[fenders53]

I'm starting to get concerned it will choke travel and the world economy just when Covid has subsided. That would be the dagger for the rest of our ports. It was going so well before the invasion. A recession will solve inflation but that wasn't what I had in mind.

[EricL]

(03-02-2022, 02:15 AM)vbin Wrote: @EricL what oil tikrs you looking at currently? Thoughts on psx, et, oxy?

I am looking at E&P's and drillers/suppliers mostly. I think they have much more upside than midstream, as midstream companies don't have as much earnings upside from higher prices.

OXY should do quite well with higher prices, as higher cash flows will overwhelm their substantial debt problems. The company has good acreage and production, the problem was the debt, and that problem is quickly being erased as they pay it down with strong cash flows.

I think the majors are still worth buying but are much closer to fair value than the smaller players. I'll continue holding CVX, EOG, KMI and XOM in my dividend portfolio, and expect they will all continue growing dividends.

I don't like recommending any one name specifically, but some names I own are:

E&P: CPG, CVE, OVV, EGY, OBE, ATHOF
Coal: BTU, ARCH
Nat Gas: CHK, VET
Solar: SEDG, ENPH
Drilling Services: HP

I don't own any of these, but am watching.
Frac Sand: SLCA
Oilfield Services: CLB
Drilling Services: ICD
Tankers: FRO, NAT, STNG, TNK

[vbin]

Brk loaded 30m additional oxy shares today. Oxy up 18%. Oil is still a play

[fenders53]

(03-04-2022, 09:33 PM)vbin Wrote: Brk loaded 30m additional oxy shares today. Oxy up 18%. Oil is still a play

That's an understatement.  Production is about to increase but it won't be fast enough.