VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

This is the closest I ever watched commodities.  Oil seems the most complicated.  Only a few countries have spare capacity for now.

Lumber is crazy volatile but can self correct quickly.  From $400 per 1000BF to $1700+, back to sub 400 and now near 800.  Most of that occurred in 6 months. Mills working overtime to shutting down a few weeks to get it back off 400.  It's never been this volatile.

Gold in a 5% range because industrial use is minimal.

Steel historically high but iron ore isn't rare.  It won't take years to get fairly cheap.

Copper spiked but that is correctable by the time chips allow auto production.

Looks hopeless but the stocks pulled way back.  The market knows.

I do think oil will be the last thing to correct.  Looks like only a recession could cool it off.  I don't expect that.

[EricL]

Crude continuing its march higher...$85

   

[vbin]

I have calls long and and short both on oxy. I hope for it to not rise too fast by mid of next month and continue to climb higher as we go into 2022. China lockdown slowed down oil a bit.

[fenders53]

Earnings will be interesting.  Hard to screw this up unless a small company hedged.  My shares will be gone soon.  I stopped benefiting over a week ago.  No tears lol, if was a good run.  All I will have left is ENB.

[fenders53]

It looks like the bad hedging award finalists are reporting.  I would be a disappointed shareholder if I saw those losses right now with oil and natural gas at these levels.

[EricL]

(10-27-2021, 05:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: It looks like the bad hedging award finalists are reporting.  I would be a disappointed shareholder if I saw those losses right now with oil and natural gas at these levels.

I'm sure some were forced into the hedges by the banks to ensure they wouldn't go bankrupt. 

But yeah, there are some companies taking it in the shorts now.

[fenders53]

Banks for sure and it was responsible from their perspective.

[EricL]

Keep in mind these are trailing numbers with $58 sale prices for oil and $3.25 for natural gas. We are at $81.50 and $5.50 as of this morning.

• Chevron (NYSE:CVX) +2% pre-market after crushing Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, as average realized prices for its crude oil nearly doubled and natural gas prices nearly quadrupled compared with a year ago.
  
  
• Chevron says its Q3 profit of $6.11B was the highest quarterly result in eight years, swinging from a $207M loss in the same period last year.
  
  
• Q3 upstream earnings totaled $5.14B vs. $235M in the year-earlier quarter and more than $1B above $4.07B consensus; downstream earnings were $1.31B vs. $292M a year ago and above $1.09B consensus.
  
  
• Q3 total revenues soared 83% Y/Y to $44.7B, nearly $4B above analyst expectations.
  
  
• Q3 cash flow from operations totaled $8.6B, while free cash flow hit a quarterly record $6.7B.
  
  
• The results were so strong that Chevron's net-debt-to-capital ratio has fallen below its target of 20%-25%, a key threshold that could prompt an increase in stock repurchases, CFO Pierre Breber tells Bloomberg.
  
  
• Q3 worldwide net production rose 7% Y/Y to 3.03M bbl/day; U.S. upstream production jumped 15% to 1.13M boe/day, while international upstream production was relatively flat at 1.91M boe/day.
  
  
• U.S. upstream average crude oil and NGL sales price up 87% Y/Y to $58/bbl from $31/bbl a year ago, and U.S. upstream average sales price increased ~3.5x to $3.25/Mcf from $0.89 a year ago; international upstream average crude oil and NGL sales price up 74% to $68/bbl, international upstream average sales price up 61% to $6.28/Mcf.
  
  
• U.S. downstream refinery crude oil input rose 9% Y/Y to 895K bbl/day; international downstream refinery crude oil input rose 2.5% to 584K bbl/day.
  
  
• Q3 earnings "were the highest since first quarter 2013 largely due to improved market conditions, strong operational performance and a lower cost structure," CEO Mike Wirth said.
  

Chevron is going to be printing incredible amounts of cash the new few quarters, and with its debt target now hit, that means big buybacks and what should be a sizable dividend boost.

[fenders53]

Chevron looked very strong. Most of them are doing well with the occasional surprise mixed in. It's going to be hard to lose money for awhile. Although I understand they need to spend some CAPEX, their conservative strategy should make it easier for you to hold these. Meaning they shouldn't be in dire straights a year into a down cycle. After the last peak it was breath taking how fast midcap drillers and pipelines were in deep trouble.

[fenders53]

I panic sold some puts today so I can stay engaged in this thread lol. Most of my oil got called away already. The profits were good but I left some on the table. I sold a put in CVX, XOM and XLE. I'll add a little more potential exposure if oil somehow dips 5%. We never know for sure. Long story short I grabbed some cash today and I'll get pulled back into oil shares if XLE hits about 55 or less in the next six weeks.

[vbin]

I doubt, even if it doee, oil still have space to run

[fenders53]

(11-02-2021, 09:48 AM)vbin Wrote: I doubt, even if it doee, oil still have space to run

A dip will happen somehow with winter coming but I can't think of anything more solid by spring.  No chance oil is crashing enough to be a problem.