VBIN's oil stock thread.

[vbin]

(10-02-2021, 02:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-02-2021, 01:57 PM)bankerboy Wrote: Agree. Will keep it a bit longer then say goodbye....


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I am going to lose my shares to covered calls but I will watch for an entry this winter.  I am pretty confident  demand will be very strong next summer.  I am pretty confident OPEC+ is capable of adding to supply.  Can they pump enough if the US producers remain conservative?  There is no oil shortage but there could be a production shortage.  Too many institutions that can't invest due to ESG so it has to be more than good for oil companys prices to run vs oil prices.

The full re-opening still haven't happened and we are already hearing about shortages.

What is long term? 20 years from now we will still be talking oil and it's dependency. It has no viable alternative yet.

[bankerboy]

It will be depend on whether the socialists can force the American public to switch over to EV. Demand will start declining faster once the big blue States due this. It will be in less than 20 years IMO.

NG and EV are the future from what I can tell.


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[fenders53]

(10-02-2021, 02:59 PM)vbin Wrote:

(10-02-2021, 02:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-02-2021, 01:57 PM)bankerboy Wrote: Agree. Will keep it a bit longer then say goodbye....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am going to lose my shares to covered calls but I will watch for an entry this winter.  I am pretty confident  demand will be very strong next summer.  I am pretty confident OPEC+ is capable of adding to supply.  Can they pump enough if the US producers remain conservative?  There is no oil shortage but there could be a production shortage.  Too many institutions that can't invest due to ESG so it has to be more than good for oil companys prices to run vs oil prices.

The full re-opening still haven't happened and we are already hearing about shortages.

What is long term? 20 years from now we will still be talking oil and it's dependency. It has no viable alternative yet.

Just depends if production increases because there is time for that since the reopen got seriously delayed.  There is 50 years worth of oil in the ground with today's tech.  If this is a sure thing why is the largest US producer down 25% from a few years ago and underperforming SPY?  I am guessing the market knows what happens if oil spikes.  

IMO longterm is 20 years and it will be booms and busts like the last 20.  Predictions are free and I think XOM could see 80 within a few years if foreign oil doesn't wreck it first.  Whomever steps up the fracking early might be the big winner.  We'll watch the rig counts.  I haven't checked that lately.

Oil isn't dead, but oil stock investing is wounded forever unless something drastically changes.  Institutions can invest in growth forever.  That's been working fine.  3X as good as oil 90% of the last 10 years.

[vbin]

Sold some portion of eog today.

[EricL]

Another boost to crude demand.

   

[vbin]

Oil at $80 @fenders53


Looks like I started trimming my oil too soon. Might not get chance to buy again till next year.

[fenders53]

(10-05-2021, 10:23 AM)vbin Wrote: Oil at $80 @fenders53


Looks like I started trimming my oil too soon. Might not get chance to buy again till next year.

Is WTI at $80?  I figured it would be next spring for that. I do think $100 is possible by then if OPEC plays nice.  Their decision yesterday was appropriate. Product raise is reasonable. Natural gas is the issue.  It could get dangerous if we don't up the supply for winter.

[fenders53]

Sold an XOM and an XLE put EXP 10-29. Much closer to the money as the old ones will expire worthless soon if I don't close them. I think they call this chasing LOL but I don't see oil/gas dipping much in the next 30 days. I don't want to completely miss the fun. I am going to have a ton of stuff exercised this week and lose my shares.

[fenders53]

And just like that oil is not $80.  I realize it's meaningless soon enough but I will always be amazed how easily oil can be jawboned 5% without actually doing anything.  It really is a lot of money though.

[vbin]

Sold some CC in oil stocks today.

[EricL]

(10-07-2021, 06:06 AM)fenders53 Wrote: And just like that oil is not $80.  I realize it's meaningless soon enough but I will always be amazed how easily oil can be jawboned 5% without actually doing anything.  It really is a lot of money though.

Three days later and it's pushing $81.

   

The rally is just starting guys. $100 oil by Christmas...

[fenders53]

(10-10-2021, 10:27 PM)EricL Wrote:

(10-07-2021, 06:06 AM)fenders53 Wrote: And just like that oil is not $80.  I realize it's meaningless soon enough but I will always be amazed how easily oil can be jawboned 5% without actually doing anything.  It really is a lot of money though.

Three days later and it's pushing $81.



The rally is just starting guys. $100 oil by Christmas...

Can you hear the fracking rigs firing up yet?