VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(07-14-2021, 11:24 AM)vbin Wrote: I feel it's too soon. People are being utterly irresponsible. Everyone just wants to jump in the water without a life jacket. If they have a life jacket they don't care if the water can still freeze them.

I understand your concern.  I'm not saying you are wrong.  I was also sick of being trapped at home or HD for over a year.  I live in a place where it is now safe to live life some.  My 82 yr old mother spent 1 1/2yrs indoors.  She is still somewhat mobile and she isn't getting that time back.  I am glad we don't live in a high population area.  

I missed the OPEC+ news.  That will be helpful over time.  About a year from now we will settle this debate of how much OPEC+ can truly produce without heavy capital expenditure.  I suppose the next thing to worry about is whether frackers can get their hands on financing.   Banks would be crazy to do that again.

[fenders53]

Well Cramer called the top on oil yesterday. Time so sell out. I enjoy his banter but then again he blessed purchases of ENPH-FSLR and GNRC on Monday at the top. It amazes me how he makes declarative statements when he is grossly deficient on facts that matter longer than 48 hours.

[vbin]

Do reverse of what Cramer says.

[fenders53]

I get some decent picks from him now and then but his timing is horrible and random. The picks he mentioned were idiotic after they flew $50 + in a couple weeks and clearly started hitting resistance. The oil call was just shock value. He has no clue.

[fenders53]

I try to be mindful when I sell puts where the ort might land when it goes bad, because a time or two a year it does. If XLE doesn't get back to at least 51.50 in a month or so this will be the breakdown on my oil holdings. XLE 75% ENB 10% EOG 10% RDS 5% I could have got better premiums chasing the more leveraged stuff. I feel comfortable holding all of this stuff a year and the dividends are actually quite good and very secure IMO. Oil still hates me but I am feeling much better about it this time.

[fenders53]

You were right VBIN. Covid D clipped the oil sentiment for now. Oil is hanging in there but the summer rally is dead. Supply will catch up when vacation season ends but hopefully we can stay in the range for profitable oil companies. I think we can.

[fenders53]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3728738-us...ine-prices

I am speechless.

[vbin]

(08-10-2021, 10:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote: You were right VBIN. Covid D clipped the oil sentiment for now. Oil is hanging in there but the summer rally is dead. Supply will catch up when vacation season ends but hopefully we can stay in the range for profitable oil companies. I think we can.

I think oil will go further up but will have to wait. Govts still going on for reopenings. I might buy more XLE if it falls.

Most of the oil companies had decent earnings.

[vbin]

(08-11-2021, 07:30 AM)fenders53 Wrote: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3728738-us...ine-prices

I am speechless.

I think they see oil prices go further up if supply doesn't increase( unless they are stupider than I thought)

[EricL]

Delta is clipping current demand, but the overall trend of declining inventories and lowered drilling/exploration budgets remains.

I'm still bullish long-term, despite the current hiccup.

[fenders53]

(08-11-2021, 10:16 AM)vbin Wrote:

(08-11-2021, 07:30 AM)fenders53 Wrote: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3728738-us...ine-prices

I am speechless.

I think they see oil prices go further up if supply doesn't increase( unless they are stupider than I thought)

Everyone expects that, and midterm campaigns are a few quarters away.  As I have said all along there isn't a doubt in my mind OPEC could kill oil prices in the short to mid-term.  (Longer term I don't know).  They cut production huge just a year ago.  My guess is they have learned their lesson and will drag their feet.  There are non OPEC+ producers that like our money so who knows what they do.  US producers that have the ability to increase production a bit would be wise to do so now.  It would be crazy not to if OPEC even acts like they will comply with request.

This is why I ignore SA bull articles and invest lightly.  They never get tired of being wrong.

[EricL]

U.S. crude inventories are now below 2018 levels.