All I am really suggesting is don't throw down with both fists. I know you love your oil stocks. You can spread your oil bets out. Invest some on the upside and that is not here for awhile. There is no doubt there will be times when oil stocks run. Load up and hold for 20 years? Probably not a good idea anymore. There are clearly better options on a risk reward basis. You will likely just ride the tide up and down 4-5 times because they are cyclical. Swing trade that! The dividends are just icing when you happen to get them.
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VBIN's oil stock thread.
VBIN's oil stock thread.
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VBIN's oil stock thread.
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11-05-2020, 06:15 PM
https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1324362536024723458
Quote:#Brazil: September oil production was 2.907mbpd, -5.8% m/m, -0.7% y/y 
It's November and my windows are open all week. Sell all your natty gas now!
 Kidding of course but I did step out of RDS on the bounce. It's my opinion oil hits it's seasonal low on this rona spike. European shutdowns perhaps, and we'll get through the worst in the next few months. Please let me be right that it fades after this. I intend a few put sales on majors with a bit of pullback for my re-entry. RDS actually closing a refinery. I would think that helps the competition?
11-09-2020, 04:21 PM
Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60.
11-09-2020, 05:07 PM
11-09-2020, 05:42 PM
(11-09-2020, 05:07 PM)EricL Wrote:Thank you Eric. I totally missed that while being occupied at work. I hope vaccine does works out for the world. But in really not sure how effective it will be against mutations of the virus plus production and logistic difficulties.(11-09-2020, 04:21 PM)vbin Wrote: Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60. I guess still it's not too late to add more oil. May be should buy leap calls. Lol. 
I don't care if OIL goes up a 100 percent from here, I still wont own it lol
Oil is just one sector I stay away from unless I trade it. Never can I own it long term. It's just not a consistent grower for me year over year. I know people have owned it for 10 years and are still down on their investment. Sure we got a vaccine news but that doesn't mean everyone just going to set sail on a cruise tomorrow lol In another week the oils will be right back in a downtrend. Lets not forget Biden is bad for the oll stocks. Sorry to be such a bear lol 
11-09-2020, 09:29 PM
(11-09-2020, 09:14 PM)divmenow Wrote: I don't care if OIL goes up a 100 percent from here, I still wont own it lol I tend to agree with that. Oil is ok if you able to pick the bottom and ride it up 10-15% and then get it before the next drop. Wind, Solar and alternative energy is the place to be for growth and over the next several + years. Some oil names are starting to invest in other sectors like BP. Those might do well over time, but the ones who are restricted to just oil will be dinosaurs and struggle.
11-09-2020, 10:10 PM
(11-09-2020, 05:42 PM)vbin Wrote:The accelerated shotgun approach with the vaccine was a good plan, whether it works out fully of not. A half dozen major companies working on their own recipe. Hired to grow cultures well before trials are half over. That's as good as it will get for preparedness. If some of it ends up in the dumpster it's seems like a prudent risk to try and save potentially millions around the word.(11-09-2020, 05:07 PM)EricL Wrote:Thank you Eric. I totally missed that while being occupied at work. I hope vaccine does works out for the world. But in really not sure how effective it will be against mutations of the virus plus production and logistic difficulties.(11-09-2020, 04:21 PM)vbin Wrote: Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60. And LEAP calls probably are the best way to play oil with less capital tied up, but you really have to be patient for a near the bottom of the cycle. IMO it's a horrible idea to average down on any options, especially a commodity due to the shelf life. You time it right or you don't. Save the averaging down for high quality growth stocks. Holding for years can save you from yourself.
11-09-2020, 10:15 PM
(11-09-2020, 09:29 PM)stockguru Wrote:Solar is renewable flavor of the year. That's all good but the better ones are up 5X in 2020 with little to no profit. That is not likely a great hold for a few years situation. They'll look better to me some month next year when the market gets smoked. You can try to MOMO them right now of course, but you better be nimble if it's much of a position.(11-09-2020, 09:14 PM)divmenow Wrote: I don't care if OIL goes up a 100 percent from here, I still wont own it lol
11-10-2020, 10:11 AM
Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:
2020.Q3 Goehring & Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf (Size: 463.62 KB / Downloads: 5)
Well worth a read for those considering energy. (11-10-2020, 10:11 AM)EricL Wrote: Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:Long article but I read a lot of it. It reminds me of a lot of S.A. articles. IMO only the foolish consider it a worthless commodity going forward. I've lost a lot of money over the past three decades believing that is all I needed to know. Just keep the faith and my day would come. Where I screwed up was thinking it was a long-term buy and hold investment like a blue chip DGI stock. It simply wasn't during most of my investment lifetime. VBIN is fairly deep in XOM at $60. It looked like a good deal to me as well but I bailed and placed my capital elsewhere when it didn't appear to be so. I do believe XOM might return to $60 in 3 or 5 years. If the dividend holds it would be a decent enough return IMO. He needs it to go to $100 in five years for it to be a truly good investment. Opportunity cost matters in an epic bull market. You have to make money when we aren't in a five year sideways market. It's not a small problem that "ethical" investors have shunned oil for years. What would change that? I definitely don't invest like that, but if the millennials adhere to the narrative it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It doesn't matter if oil goes to $100 BBL if fund managers won't buy the stock. It really is about market sentiment and that's not a original thought for sure. 60yr+ old plus investors will keep the faith alive for now, and write lots of compelling articles. Convincing young investors is the task at hand and they just voted in an anti-oil president. He was quite clear he believes oil will become a smaller part of the energy future and he has some influence on that outcome. He is wrong in the near-term but we'll see how much that matters. |
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