07-02-2015, 12:40 AM
I agree Kerim. We all know the Feds will raise rates gradually, and I doubt we'll even see 3% in this decade. The raise will be specifically engineered to have minimal "real" effects on the market--a repeat of 2008 and they just have to start over again.
However, I suspect when the initial raise comes (or just the definite news), we'll see a 36-72 hour "panic" just like we saw with Greece, which will take the markets down. And, just like with Greece, those with dry powder will prosper.
We know rates will raise, that is as simply and obvious a given as warm winters effecting NG prices—it’s a priced in given I believe. What will cause the next 30-50% drop—just like what tanked oil--will be that which nobody (save the few) see coming.
But, then again, I almost bought a bridge in Brooklyn once…so don’t listen to me ;-)
Ronn
However, I suspect when the initial raise comes (or just the definite news), we'll see a 36-72 hour "panic" just like we saw with Greece, which will take the markets down. And, just like with Greece, those with dry powder will prosper.
We know rates will raise, that is as simply and obvious a given as warm winters effecting NG prices—it’s a priced in given I believe. What will cause the next 30-50% drop—just like what tanked oil--will be that which nobody (save the few) see coming.
But, then again, I almost bought a bridge in Brooklyn once…so don’t listen to me ;-)
Ronn