05-10-2014, 07:54 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2014, 09:53 PM by earthtodan.)
Hi all,
I decided to write up a portfolio business plan in order to apply some structure between my portfolio and my mind. Please offer your comments and suggestions. It is of course a work in progress, and probably will remain so for years.
Goal
Build a recurring revenue stream that grows faster than inflation during retirement, and is large enough to provide financial independence with no other sources of income. Target a retirement age of 60.
Strategy
Aim for a double digit total return CAGR over roughly a 30 year timeframe, using primarily dividend growth stocks in a taxable brokerage account and a Roth IRA. Contribute a predetermined amount every month to the taxable account.
Dividends will be invested selectively and opportunistically, using commission-free trading from MerrillEdge. In the absence of value in the market, preference may be given to reinvesting in the company that paid the dividend, or it may be held as cash.
Upon retirement, gradually rebalance the portfolio from a total return strategy to an income oriented strategy. Aim to sell non-dividend paying stocks during years when I have little earned income, in order to minimize capital gains taxes.
Theory of Dividends As Part of a Total Return Strategy
Dividends are the portion of a company’s earnings left over after management has invested in normal business growth, and which shareholders can use more accretively than management by reinvesting in more shares. The mathematical action of dividend compounding is treated as a more certain means of return than price appreciation. However, total return can consist of any combination of price appreciation and yield.
Balance
Stocks are grouped into four profiles, defined by yield.
High Yield (> 5%) - Any high yielding stock regardless of projected growth
Balanced (2% - 5%) - Most blue chip dividend growth stocks should fall into this profile.
Growth (0%-2%) - This can include new dividend growers, maturing companies with accelerated dividend growth and payout ratios, and non-dividend paying companies with a track record of strong earnings growth.
Speculative (0%) - Companies with a good story but negative, non-existent or unreliable earnings to date
The balance of the portfolio by yield profile is tracked in the portfolio spreadsheet. There is no target balance except as determined by the target sizes of individual positions. However there is a maximum allocation for each category at any time.
High Yield: 30% max
Balanced: 75% max
Growth: 50% max
Speculative: 15% max
Individual Target Allocations
Individual stocks are assigned a level of conviction on a scale of 1-5. The percentage allocation of each conviction point is 100 divided by the sum total of all conviction points. The portfolio spreadsheet determines each position target in dollars.
Conviction ( C ) is determined by the formula C = [1.5Y + y + H/25 + h + .9G + c - (D - 1) + .5(d - 1)] / 5
Where:
Y = Portion of the yield that is within the target payout ratio, or under 60% payout ratio, whichever is lower
y = Implied yield capacity, or the amount that could be added to the current yield to get to a targeted payout ratio. This number can also be negative.
H = History of consecutive dividend increases, in years (in local currency)
h = 1 if the company has raised the dividend for 10 consecutive years
G = 5-year forward EPS growth estimate as shown on Finviz.com, weighted toward management guidance if it is different
c = Personal conviction adjustment based on my macro view (0-3)
D = Debt/equity ratio, rounded to the nearest 1
d = Current ratio, rounded to the nearest 1
The result is rounded to the nearest 1, with a limit of 5. A position must score at least 2 to be included in the portfolio. I reserve the right to adjust the final score due to factors not included in the formula.
A stock's total return projection (Y + G) must equal at least 12, unless justified by adjustments such as y, H or c.
The portfolio should not exceed 35 stocks.
Rebalancing
A position outgrowing its target allocation due to price appreciation alone will not merit rebalancing, unless it becomes seriously overvalued or the bull thesis changes. Winners will be allowed to keep winning.
I may opportunistically buy a larger position than my target allocation if the stock becomes undervalued. Growth of an opportunistically large purchase is an acceptable reason to trim it back to the target allocation, although it will not be required.
Treatment of Dividend Freezes and Cuts
An unexpected dividend freeze or cut will require that I give the company an honest reanalysis. It will not trigger an immediate sell requirement, especially if there is a sudden price drop. The reanalysis will not have a deadline, and may include waiting to see what the company does with the dividend in future quarters.
Roth IRA
Transfer the maximum allowed contribution to the Roth from the taxable account in cash at the beginning of each year.
REITs should be exclusively held in the Roth for tax purposes. High yield stocks should be preferentially allocated to the Roth in order to minimize the tax burden, after the REIT positions are full. Balanced stocks can be held in the Roth if there is room left over after the REITs and high yield positions are fully allocated, and so forth.
Foreign securities whose dividends are taxed at the source cannot be held in the Roth unless there is a tax withholding treaty.
Options Strategies
Write ATM puts to generate cash, with the strike secured on margin, since MerrillEdge does not charge interest for margin-secured puts. Attempt to write puts with a 1 year duration, and ladder the expirations so that they are not all vulnerable to a single market event. Give preference to defensive companies with share buyback programs, and aim for a 10% premium. Put liabilities are not considered the equivalent of stock ownership, but should only be written on stocks I am willing to own.
Long calls can be used as a speculative strategy for high conviction stocks with binary catalysts and low market correlation.
Exclusions
MLPs, BDCs, ETFs, metals, commodities, futures, and forex are excluded. Companies that I find morally objectionable are excluded. Anything that carries a maintenance fee is excluded. Shorting is excluded. Direct real estate ownership, while a future possibility, is not currently considered as part of the business plan.
I decided to write up a portfolio business plan in order to apply some structure between my portfolio and my mind. Please offer your comments and suggestions. It is of course a work in progress, and probably will remain so for years.
Dan's Portfolio Business Plan
Goal
Build a recurring revenue stream that grows faster than inflation during retirement, and is large enough to provide financial independence with no other sources of income. Target a retirement age of 60.
Strategy
Aim for a double digit total return CAGR over roughly a 30 year timeframe, using primarily dividend growth stocks in a taxable brokerage account and a Roth IRA. Contribute a predetermined amount every month to the taxable account.
Dividends will be invested selectively and opportunistically, using commission-free trading from MerrillEdge. In the absence of value in the market, preference may be given to reinvesting in the company that paid the dividend, or it may be held as cash.
Upon retirement, gradually rebalance the portfolio from a total return strategy to an income oriented strategy. Aim to sell non-dividend paying stocks during years when I have little earned income, in order to minimize capital gains taxes.
Theory of Dividends As Part of a Total Return Strategy
Dividends are the portion of a company’s earnings left over after management has invested in normal business growth, and which shareholders can use more accretively than management by reinvesting in more shares. The mathematical action of dividend compounding is treated as a more certain means of return than price appreciation. However, total return can consist of any combination of price appreciation and yield.
Balance
Stocks are grouped into four profiles, defined by yield.
High Yield (> 5%) - Any high yielding stock regardless of projected growth
Balanced (2% - 5%) - Most blue chip dividend growth stocks should fall into this profile.
Growth (0%-2%) - This can include new dividend growers, maturing companies with accelerated dividend growth and payout ratios, and non-dividend paying companies with a track record of strong earnings growth.
Speculative (0%) - Companies with a good story but negative, non-existent or unreliable earnings to date
The balance of the portfolio by yield profile is tracked in the portfolio spreadsheet. There is no target balance except as determined by the target sizes of individual positions. However there is a maximum allocation for each category at any time.
High Yield: 30% max
Balanced: 75% max
Growth: 50% max
Speculative: 15% max
Individual Target Allocations
Individual stocks are assigned a level of conviction on a scale of 1-5. The percentage allocation of each conviction point is 100 divided by the sum total of all conviction points. The portfolio spreadsheet determines each position target in dollars.
Conviction ( C ) is determined by the formula C = [1.5Y + y + H/25 + h + .9G + c - (D - 1) + .5(d - 1)] / 5
Where:
Y = Portion of the yield that is within the target payout ratio, or under 60% payout ratio, whichever is lower
y = Implied yield capacity, or the amount that could be added to the current yield to get to a targeted payout ratio. This number can also be negative.
H = History of consecutive dividend increases, in years (in local currency)
h = 1 if the company has raised the dividend for 10 consecutive years
G = 5-year forward EPS growth estimate as shown on Finviz.com, weighted toward management guidance if it is different
c = Personal conviction adjustment based on my macro view (0-3)
D = Debt/equity ratio, rounded to the nearest 1
d = Current ratio, rounded to the nearest 1
The result is rounded to the nearest 1, with a limit of 5. A position must score at least 2 to be included in the portfolio. I reserve the right to adjust the final score due to factors not included in the formula.
A stock's total return projection (Y + G) must equal at least 12, unless justified by adjustments such as y, H or c.
The portfolio should not exceed 35 stocks.
Rebalancing
A position outgrowing its target allocation due to price appreciation alone will not merit rebalancing, unless it becomes seriously overvalued or the bull thesis changes. Winners will be allowed to keep winning.
I may opportunistically buy a larger position than my target allocation if the stock becomes undervalued. Growth of an opportunistically large purchase is an acceptable reason to trim it back to the target allocation, although it will not be required.
Treatment of Dividend Freezes and Cuts
An unexpected dividend freeze or cut will require that I give the company an honest reanalysis. It will not trigger an immediate sell requirement, especially if there is a sudden price drop. The reanalysis will not have a deadline, and may include waiting to see what the company does with the dividend in future quarters.
Roth IRA
Transfer the maximum allowed contribution to the Roth from the taxable account in cash at the beginning of each year.
REITs should be exclusively held in the Roth for tax purposes. High yield stocks should be preferentially allocated to the Roth in order to minimize the tax burden, after the REIT positions are full. Balanced stocks can be held in the Roth if there is room left over after the REITs and high yield positions are fully allocated, and so forth.
Foreign securities whose dividends are taxed at the source cannot be held in the Roth unless there is a tax withholding treaty.
Options Strategies
Write ATM puts to generate cash, with the strike secured on margin, since MerrillEdge does not charge interest for margin-secured puts. Attempt to write puts with a 1 year duration, and ladder the expirations so that they are not all vulnerable to a single market event. Give preference to defensive companies with share buyback programs, and aim for a 10% premium. Put liabilities are not considered the equivalent of stock ownership, but should only be written on stocks I am willing to own.
Long calls can be used as a speculative strategy for high conviction stocks with binary catalysts and low market correlation.
Exclusions
MLPs, BDCs, ETFs, metals, commodities, futures, and forex are excluded. Companies that I find morally objectionable are excluded. Anything that carries a maintenance fee is excluded. Shorting is excluded. Direct real estate ownership, while a future possibility, is not currently considered as part of the business plan.