Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread

[fenders53]

(01-08-2022, 11:32 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-08-2022, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-08-2022, 09:47 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-04-2022, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-04-2022, 07:12 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: LMT is up just 37% in the past 5 years.  Great dividend, but why put it in a total return account?

Diversification maybe?  Scroll back a little farther on defense stocks.  You probably don't like RTX much either?  What if I told you it was a 30 bagger since the mid 90s?  CSCO is about about a ZERO bagger for 20 years.  Do you still own it?  LMT has some decent long-term stats too.  I don't think LMT is going to have a great year (because they said so), but all our stocks can't have a great year every year if we are diversified, when the market is normal anyway.   

These are good discussions though.

stocks go up, stocks go down, some are winners and some are laggards--sometimes for years in either case

some of my laggards have been my bigger gainers this past year--with how wild the market has been as of late my portfolio has been hanging in there quite well

i always buy too early but established some good companies that will be adding years to come

my take is buying on the way up or on the way down--in the end what's the difference??

That depends on whether the final destination is zero.    Usually they aren't though and you are correct.  With a long enough hold period it generally doesn't matter much if you are buying quality that isn't extremely overvalued.  Nobody will ever convince me buying more CSCO, INTC and PFE was a good idea in 1999.  I may not live to be 110 lol.

yes that's another conundrum, not all stock picks will be overall winners--sometimes very good/much needed companies are not investment winners

The valuation thing always matters in the end.  The tech bubble stocks I cry about were up very nice for years before they crashed.  I sometimes leave that part of the story out, but I had triples in CSCO in MSFT, and doubles in INTC and a few others.  They turned out to be quite mediocre investments over 25 years (I finally gave up on MSFT a few years too soon).  I own quite a bit of FAANG now but worry I am setting myself up for another ten years of sideways.  I don't expect that but we'll see. Will APPL and MSFT just lay there for years? It's highly likely IMO but we never know when it starts. If it's ten years from now who cares?