On Time in the Market

[cemanuel]

(12-12-2021, 12:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-12-2021, 11:50 AM)rnsmth Wrote:

(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:

(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade.  Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day.  If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.

Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.

That may or may not be.   Could not prove it either way by me.

Here is the thing, I do not need to do it.  I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets.  I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.

Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.

There is no math to analyze with almost all penny stocks.  It's a dilution game and most of the "companies" are a couple of people that run a shell company.  They often have fraud lawsuits in their past if you research them just a little.  The space is full of scamsters.  There is generally no product being produced.  It's usually just a website and some conceptual product ideas illustrated.  There is no real need to research.  Pick some tickers and hope they get hyped while you are watching so you can bail and leave the bag holders behind. That really is how almost all of them roll.  A roulette wheel is more appealing to me because the roulette wheel involves no humans purposely trying to steal from me.  The wheel is just math.

Most of the above is not true in my experience. There are some but those are easily identified. Technically I haven't done a mathematical analysis but finding legit companies was not hard when I did it. Most have, for example, a single pharma product in early stage testing or 100 acres of explorative property for some thing or other, NG or oil. There is math to analyze, just very different math from anything you'd use for dividend, or even larger cap growth stocks. And one of those is the length of time the company has been in existence. They have to file the same reports with the FTC as any other publicly traded company. You have to read them.

Look for things like regular, massive stock dilution, crazy management actions over time, asset lists that never change, news announcement with no basis in reality, there's more - I haven't done anything with them in 3 years. Certainly there are scams. But they're not hard to avoid. Lots of signs. For example, with a startup pharma - have they filed a patent? If yes, they are probably legit. If no, I'd stay away. Make sure the company has taken at least that one next step involving some time and money toward whatever it is they are supposed to be doing.