Vale?

[ken-do-nim]

(12-31-2021, 01:03 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-31-2021, 12:48 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(12-31-2021, 12:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Ken, I've said this until you must be tired of hearing it but you can only hold commodities/ materials stocks long-term if your buy very near the bottom when nobody wants them, and it looks like dividends will be zero and solvency is not assured.  I suspect you  did a FOMO on the spike when VALE was handing out ridiculous dividends.  They do that when they can to reward shareholders (as they should).  Informed shareholders know they if they don't trade they will ride it sideways or down for 3-5 year periods.  Most bail and it gets very ugly.  There is no telling where metals are going this year.  Oil looks good for awhile but even there you have to be nimble because the bottom was clearly last year.  The oil story could change in a year or less.  You always need to look backwards on the charts because the story repeats itself since forever.  Give it some time and most commodities will be depressed until the next up cycle which will more than likely be years.

It was a cautious FOMO 

25 shares of VALE "watch" position.  Larger position in RIO, though half of what I had at the height.  Hopefully both bought near the bottom but time will tell, agreed.

Don't add right now.  Hold it and learn (if the position is small enough to not really hurt you).  I don't like it, but I can hold them for a modest dividend if it keeps coming.  It's still opportunity cost if you can find a boring stock likely to yield a lame 5% total return.  VALE may very well be OK this year but I wouldn't count on it if the economy slows at all.  RIO looks safer to me though it will still ride the commodity cycle.  If you are going to play commodities stay with the ones that won't be anywhere near BK.  The lessor ones don't even tempt me anymore. The real money was made starting over a year ago.  Smart money left because they know the game.

Sounds like a plan.  There's something to be said for these variable dividend payers regarding the entertainment factor.