04-04-2021, 07:54 AM
(04-04-2021, 07:34 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Happy Easter!First of all my Minnesota Twins blew their first 9th inning lead during game #1. At least we got that heartbreak out of the way. We need to fire up the baseball thread while everybody's team is still alive.
Yeah I think having a quick hook is essential to owning triples. Don't pull a Grady Little. I just realized Pedro's 8th inning meltdown in 2003 is the equivalent of a triple having a drawdown. The Sox have ZERO offense so far this year. Ugh. Um ... investing right, not baseball. Where was I?
Oh yeah! So I went through the triples list and sorted them into two buckets: those safe for a taxable account, and those that should only be in the ROTH. Safe for a taxable account means infrequent drawdowns, and even if you miss a drawdown, the price comes back in a few months. ROTH only either means more frequent drawdowns, or that when a drawdown does occur, it never comes back to where it was. DFEN is a great example of the latter. It was merrily going along for several years, then bam March 2020 happens, and it has never come close to where the price has been yet.
Taxable: CURE, FAS, HIBL, SOXL, SPXL, TECL, TQQQ, UPRO, WANT, WEBL
ROTH: DFEN, DPST, DRN, DUSL, LABU, MIDU, NAIL, PILL, RETL, TNA, TPOR, UTSL
Also I computed which one would have been the best to buy on that fateful day of March 15th, 2020, and the answer is surprisingly RETL, which is x20 over that period. SOXL, by contrast, is only x9.96, but that actually makes sense because it didn't quite lose all its value in that drawdown. For the record, I put my bonus into SOXL, TECL, and VOO that day.
The V-bottom hyper bounce of 2020 was legendary. The next one is statistically likely to be a little more like the GFC or maybe the tech bubble. A little harder to pick the bottom as opposed to a dead cat bounce. Hopefully that's a few years in the future. I got the GFC right. You only need to get the last one right during your accumulation phase to not get hurt too bad.