02-16-2021, 11:41 AM
(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:I'll play Switzerland here since both of you are valuable members of the forum.(02-15-2021, 09:46 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
I haven't learned Portfolio Visualizer yet and I don't know what a "timing portfolio" is, but I don't exactly understand your point, unless it is just "Hey, JNJ has been pretty good the last 22 years." I'm not knocking it, I just think AVGO has eclipsed it.
Let's say you had $10,000 just 5 years ago. Had you invested in SHOP @ $28.21, you would now have $520,503. But that doesn't mean that investing in Shopify is a good investment now either. You can only make so much of past performance.
Portfolio visualizer is a slick online tool. It's good for back testing an investment theory. One really should back-test their core positions. It's an easy google search.
JNJ was my largest non mutual fund holding for 20 years. Still looks better than 90% of the market if risk/reward matters. It likely has a spot in my port for another decade.
AVGO is better compared to a major large cap tech stock. Pull up a 20 year chart on MSFT, INTC, CSCO. I agree that AVGO looks very good here on valuation. Just know that if you pay too much you won't likely get by with it. We never no where the valuation line is but it is there. There is always another company trying to dethrone the last decade's king. They may or may not disrupt them.