VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(12-08-2020, 11:37 PM)vbin Wrote:

(12-04-2020, 12:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-04-2020, 12:11 PM)EricL Wrote:

(12-04-2020, 11:47 AM)vbin Wrote:

(12-04-2020, 11:19 AM)fenders53 Wrote: This was a bigtime political piece rather than an investment thesis. Other than being foolish enough to allow politics to jade his investment thesis, overall I agree with his end predictions.   (Very same cats said the market would surely crash NOV 4th and many cashed out.  I know quite a few locally).  I adjusted my port for either election outcome.  I always do that because it works out almost always.  That aside, his theory has considerable merit, with just a few twists from my perspective.

-I do agree that corona-viruses are very seasonal, however about 4-5 southern states in fact got hit VERY hard in the August 20 time-frame.  Anyone have a theory why that happened?  Call it fake news but hospitals got hammered with Covid patients.  I have relatives working in those hospitals.  It happened.      

-I think there may be a lot of people like me.  I'm a little too old to be reckless so I'm not, but I am sick of this and will go on vacation next year.  150 people like me driving the car instead of flying is better for oil demand right?  That's a question, not a statement.  I believe many will fly but I'm not buying airline stocks. 

-IMO OPEC+ will be adding production/reducing curbs by spring, or cheating like the US if oil spikes.  Everyone knows they They can easily supply Covid demand on short notice but I think there should be enough summer demand to support consistent $45-$50 oil.  I no longer think oil will crash below $40 unless the next few months are horrible enough to lock down numerous large states.  That should keep all the big players solvent enough.

Why not buy oil leap calls then? Fender changing sentiments on oil.is big news. Lol.

I am more curious to know about what you and Eric will be investing in oil from this point on given the recent semi rally on oil.

I'm not changing anything going forward. I currently have 6.5% energy weighting in my DGI portfolio spread between CVX, EOG, KMI, and XOM.

Other than reinvesting dividends I'll just leave them alone and let them do their thing on the recovery. 

I'll think about trimming when oil hits $80 =).

That's a great idea.  I'm trimming my T shares when they hit $60. 

If T's management can take a just a few logical decision, the company has 10x potential. That's a topic for saperate thread possibly.

Youtube influencers have started talking about oil and potential rally. Lol

There is a reason why I don't have a strong opinion on the short-term direction of oil stock prices.  If I knew that I wouldn't have lost money most every time I invested in oil.  You are closer to the end of the pandemic.  That is all that has changed for now.  I did think oil would revisit $30 this winter, and it still could though I view that far less likely than I did 90 days ago.  This is going to come down to how much liquidity will the world add to markets to lessen the pain?  And T is run by chimps.  OK, maybe that a little harsh.  I'm still in shock from the announcement to buy Direct TV at an obscene price like it was still 2005.