VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

I wonder if the next higher than normal surge in demand will be met with easy oil from the Middle East/Russia, or fracking? Both are capable of filling the need fairly rapidly. Short-term almost certainly and maybe midterm as well? That's an important question we can't know the answer to. Other than allowing a sanctioned country to sell oil OPEC+ and US fracing seem to be the short-term demand surge fill. Plus a lot in storage but that depletes quick enough even though I suspect it's a big number today. Another question is how long does Saudi think they have to sell their massive reserves at good prices. 10yrs or 50 yrs? I think it's in the middle but can't prove it. Just based on what I see as the gradual ramp in renewables.

I'm not suggesting anyone throw in the towel. I'm suggesting the risk reward of calling the bottom. I thought XOM seemed obviously near a bottom at $50. I'm pretty sure VBIN invested with that mindset. We can't relive the past, but you need a rational goal on where XOM can go, or it's not worthy of a large position. I may very well surprise some with an investment in XOM. The sky just isn't quite black enough for me to make a new serious purchase. I think it's nuts to make a large purchase in this environment, unless it's just a trade. There will be some awesome trades if you don't miss timing the bottom by 25%.

This thread is why I love this place. Differing views and I don't have to worry if Eric or anyone else is going to call me a stinkin' tree hugging liberal. (I do hug trees though lol). It is so easy to surround yourself with reinforcing opinions. That has cost me a lot of money over my investing career.

I have to decide if I am going to try to time the bottom, or jump in after the stocks have shown some sign of a bottom. (which I do not see at all right now). To steal a quote I read here last week. Well I'm no chartist, but....

When this chat fades let's throw a comment up here now and then when we think we have news.