02-21-2016, 12:46 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-21-2016, 12:48 AM by Dividendsrule.)
Nice, yeah.
Couple things, first off there is a lot of money out there, a lot of liquidity. I think that will prevent things from falling too far. Banks and private equity have trillions of dollars between them.
Second, I've been doing some research especially in the Shiller excel spreadsheet. It looks to me like 1920-1924 were pretty normal but there was a huge runup from 1924ish to 1929. Dividends distributed via the S&P went up like crazy. Basically, as I recall, Shiller pE in '29 was something like in the early 30s.
It seemed to me when I was studying it that it would be like if nowadays, the Dow was 24-25k....And then it smooshed all the way down, a lot lower. So I think to answer the original question, the market would need to go a lot higher for it to crash like in '29.
Remember in the late 20s (roaring 20s) retail investors were leveraging 10:1, lots of scummy companies were being formed with the leverage...That why the investment acts of 1933 etc were passed.
Couple things, first off there is a lot of money out there, a lot of liquidity. I think that will prevent things from falling too far. Banks and private equity have trillions of dollars between them.
Second, I've been doing some research especially in the Shiller excel spreadsheet. It looks to me like 1920-1924 were pretty normal but there was a huge runup from 1924ish to 1929. Dividends distributed via the S&P went up like crazy. Basically, as I recall, Shiller pE in '29 was something like in the early 30s.
It seemed to me when I was studying it that it would be like if nowadays, the Dow was 24-25k....And then it smooshed all the way down, a lot lower. So I think to answer the original question, the market would need to go a lot higher for it to crash like in '29.
Remember in the late 20s (roaring 20s) retail investors were leveraging 10:1, lots of scummy companies were being formed with the leverage...That why the investment acts of 1933 etc were passed.