07-12-2013, 04:38 PM
Horace,
I agree that the most recent dividend increase is a good starting place for guessing about the next, but I also factor heavily how earnings are doing and projected to do, in combination with recent payout ratios. I also round down so that my guess is likely to be conservative. I guess I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. Maybe it would be fun to start a thread for predictions about upcoming raises?
I agree that it is an easier exercise with some stocks (the “good stuff” as you say) than others. I also agree that relying heavily on high-yield stuff is a recipe for pain, but I do allocate a small portion of my portfolio to it -- I’ve got some NLY and FTR in my holdings. It is certainly riskier than my PG, JNJ, MO, and the such, and it gives me more headaches, but I like the extra juice they provide and feel like, in moderation, it is risk I can live with. Even if they cut their dividends in half they would be my highest-yielders.
Of course, I don’t attempt (with any seriousness, anyway) to predict the trajectory of future dividends with names like those. I hope they don’t cut and am happy with the income.
I agree that the most recent dividend increase is a good starting place for guessing about the next, but I also factor heavily how earnings are doing and projected to do, in combination with recent payout ratios. I also round down so that my guess is likely to be conservative. I guess I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. Maybe it would be fun to start a thread for predictions about upcoming raises?
I agree that it is an easier exercise with some stocks (the “good stuff” as you say) than others. I also agree that relying heavily on high-yield stuff is a recipe for pain, but I do allocate a small portion of my portfolio to it -- I’ve got some NLY and FTR in my holdings. It is certainly riskier than my PG, JNJ, MO, and the such, and it gives me more headaches, but I like the extra juice they provide and feel like, in moderation, it is risk I can live with. Even if they cut their dividends in half they would be my highest-yielders.
Of course, I don’t attempt (with any seriousness, anyway) to predict the trajectory of future dividends with names like those. I hope they don’t cut and am happy with the income.