08-10-2015, 06:17 PM
(08-10-2015, 09:49 AM)earthtodan Wrote: If your time horizon is 30 years I think there's an easy rule: Avoid coal, especially thermal.
The US Energy Information Administration has coal generating 39% of the electricity in 2013. In 2040 the EIA projects 34% from coal.
![[Image: main.png]](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2015.05.04/main.png)
And here's for all energy consumption with coal actually projected to grow in absolute quadrillion BTU, but fall as an overall percentage share
![[Image: fig_18.png]](http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/images/fig_18.png)
2040 is a long time away so anything can happen in the meantime.
I think coal will be perfectly fine on a 30 year horizon.
ARLP is a well run company with a great balance sheet. They're profitable where as many competitors in the US are losing boatloads of cash right now. If those companies go out of business there's a lot less supply on the market which is great for ARLP.
They're trading at a ridiculous discount right now.
3.3 EV / EBIDTA
11.3% dividend yield
24.3% free cash flow yield
5.0 P/E
54.6% payout ratio
14.7% EPS 5 year average
40% ROIC
http://financials.morningstar.com/cash-f...tml?t=ARLP