The Next 30 Years

[Dividend Watcher]

rapidacid, good list so far. I like most of them and the rest I don't know well enough to hazard an opinion. The problem I have coming up with ideas is that we all come into this game with our own biases and preconceived notions. What may seem like an interesting idea to me wouldn't interest you in the least and versa vice. That being said, here's a few of my guesses off the top of my head . . .

Basic Materials:

This is a tough sector. Many of the fields are capital-intensive and very cyclical. Sometimes I wonder if this isn't a sector where you only hold the same companies for 10-15 years and then expect to move on to another.

• BBL - if they can maintain the dividend through not only the upcoming divestiture but also the double whammy to them of the crash in the metals market we're experiencing along with the swoon in oil prices, then I think management is really focussed on growing the business for the benefit of the shareholders.
  
• PX or APD - Praxair seems to be the less encumbered company right now. APD is dealing with activist investors and has had problems growing their end markets for a while. I see light at the end of the tunnel for them and they have been growing the dividend for quite a few years.
  
• BMS - steady performer for over 30 years now. Not mentioned very often but if you can get it when it's cheap it may be a good longer-term play.
  

Communications:

• TU or BCE - I like TU better for their growth and potential in related fields. The Canadian cell market has a much lower penetration than the U.S. so there's still room to sell the 3rd or 4th device to each household and add another revenue stream. You have to deal with currency issues but over the next 10-30 years it will average out.
  

Consumer Cyclical: (Discretionary, I presume?)

• GPC - hard to compete with the NAPA brand. Just need to get it at a value.
  
• MGA - alternative to GPC. Again, the currency non-issue (to me) for long-term holders.
  
• ROST/TJX - either one's going to grow very well for the long term in my opinion.
  
• VFC - they seem to keep hitting it. Maybe it's their diversification.
  
• MCD - I think they'll come out of this slump just fine. We may be eating McSprout sammiches with McHummus but they'll still be making money.
  

Consumer Defensive: (Staples?)

• GIS - they're almost everywhere in the grocery store. If eating healthy is not a fad, they'll adapt. They have for over 100 years.
  
• CHD - they just seem to keep growing despite the market being supposedly saturated. Also have room to grow internationally.
  
• CL - they just keep doing it.
  

Energy:

• SLB/HAL - my impression is they are the go-to's for the majors on logistics, planning and services.
  
• NOV - if they come through this slump without being too slimmed down or encumbered with debt, I think they'll grow faster than SLB/HAL.
  

Financial Services:

• AFL - at some point AFL will surprise everyone. In 20 years, the older Japanese population will be dead so if they aren't making money there, they'll shift their focus someplace else.
  
• RY/TD/BMO/BNS - alternative to U.S. banks. I've already mentioned the currency issue above. Slightly better Tier 1 capital ratios although I haven't researched WFC.
  

Healthcare:

• AMGN - an alternative to GILD and still has a lot of promise after how many years?
  
• BDX - they've just been steady for years. Every year you get a 10% Christmas present and their payout ratio is still low.
  

Industrials:

My favorite. I like companies that make things and especially if they are innovative.

• UTX - low payout, steady grower and constantly evolving albeit at a slower pace than smaller companies.
  
• PH - cyclical but make a lot of things that constantly need to be repaired/replaced. Good dividend growth culture with the company.
  
• ITW - don't advertise themselves much but are constantly buying or developing new product lines. Somewhat like 3M.
  
• DE/CAT - cyclical but both seem shareholder focussed. Some would say best in class in their industry.
  
• GWW - pretty steady double-digit grower for a company as big and old as they are.
  
• VMI - hardly anyone has heard of them but the go-to for efficient agriculture irrigation and have a pretty good infrastructure segment.
  

Real Estate:

• HCP - being the only REIT Aristocrat for now counts for something. I like the diversification across 5 healthcare segments despite the Manor Care issue recently.
  
• WPC - like their international exposure.
  
• VTR - same as WPC but in health field.
  

Technology:

• QCOM - they could have a slump like they did in the 00s but so had INTC. They've been around a while so they know how to manage the bad times.
  

Utilities:

• D - I'm still leery but chowder makes a lot of sense. Shedding the ng transmission lines but keeping partial ownership could bring them a lot of revenue without all the work.
  
• AVA - smaller market cap than most utes. Don't bet on a buyout/merger although long-term consolidation in the industry could do that. In the meantime, they are slowly growing and have a stable customer base. I bet they're looking at smaller deals themselves like they did with the Alaskan deal.
  
• XEL - I like their geographic diversity although their dividend growth has been a little weak over the last decade.
  
• ES - despite all the bad talk about their regulators, or maybe because of it, they've done quite well over the last decade. Somebody had to have noticed since the P/E got up to the mid-20s this winter.
  

Most of these are overpriced right now. Some I wouldn't even consider until a sizable drop in price and some I'll avoid because by the time the dividend grows into a decent amount I'll probably be dead.     For someone with 20-30 years, you could take advantage of it.

Also, I like Eric's and Chad's suggestions above.