Today's Fed Announcement

[Roadmap2Retire]

(09-17-2015, 11:08 AM)rapidacid Wrote: I think before the last week or two I would agree with your thoughts Kerim, but from recent comments I've come across it almost seems like a "raise and rosy outlook" is "baked into" the "markets" right now ...

Who knows and mostly who cares ....

FWIW, does anyone know the option symbol or derivative that people are looking at when saying things along the lines of "the market is pricing in a 27% chance of a Fed raise in Sept" ... ?

The numbers come from trading in Fed funds futures contracts. Following is a screenshot of the Bloomberg terminal I found online.



Whatever the Fed does, we will still be talking about it again in a month or two. If Fed raises rates - next question will be "when is the next increase coming?". If the Fed does not raise rates, next question will be "will the Fed raise rates in October/December?". Rinse and repeat.

I have a bit of cash (~10%) in my portfolio...hoping for some panic in the markets to pick up some high quality companies.

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What I do find really interesting is that back in 2008 when the rates were lowered to 0 in 2008, Ben Bernanke said that the rates will stay low for a lonnnnnng time and said that we wont see rate rises until 2015. I have no idea how he could've predicted that back then and 2015 seemed so far far away. And yet here we are talking about rate rises! He must be a wizard