09-11-2015, 12:59 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2015, 12:26 AM by Dividend Watcher.)
Good point. The CDC reports this:
But let's not pick the nits. I read an article a few years ago discussing the susceptibility of acquiring HIV. I can't find it now but, IIRC, it's much more difficult to actually become infected with HIV than other forms of transmissible blood-born diseases through sexual contact. What I am trying to say is it's much easier to contract hepatitis C through sexual contact and that GILD also has a product for.
Yes, it's great that Truvada has a prophylactic effect on HIV transmission and perhaps it will solidify their market share in the HIV community but I still don't think the market is that large that it will produce a large change in it's sales to make much of a difference in GILD's performance. Do you know any heterosexuals that are rushing or even thinking about going to their doctors to get a prescription "just in case"?
In the meantime, GILD will be selling a lot of Harvoni/Solvadi to treat the largest blood-born disease infection rate from, as best as I can tell from reading different sources, the world. With a P/E hovering around 12 and all that cash being thrown onto their books, I think the long-term outlook is bright. I'm beginning to believe that the market is not counting on any large increase in sales from Harvoni/Solvadi, which it may not. From my reading, it looks like governments and insurance companies are grouping their patients by risk and once the most urgent cases are cured, then they'll move on to the next group and so on. The large expense of R&D and acquisitions to bring them to market is already a sunk cost. All that's left is the comparatively small production costs. That steady stream of cash over the next few years give GILD a lot of room to pay the dividend and for their next round of products.
Quote:CDC estimates that approximately 50,000 people in the United States are newly infected with HIV each year. In 2010 (the most recent year that data are available), there were an estimated 47,500 new HIV infections. Nearly two thirds of these new infections occurred in gay and bisexual men.
But let's not pick the nits. I read an article a few years ago discussing the susceptibility of acquiring HIV. I can't find it now but, IIRC, it's much more difficult to actually become infected with HIV than other forms of transmissible blood-born diseases through sexual contact. What I am trying to say is it's much easier to contract hepatitis C through sexual contact and that GILD also has a product for.
Yes, it's great that Truvada has a prophylactic effect on HIV transmission and perhaps it will solidify their market share in the HIV community but I still don't think the market is that large that it will produce a large change in it's sales to make much of a difference in GILD's performance. Do you know any heterosexuals that are rushing or even thinking about going to their doctors to get a prescription "just in case"?
In the meantime, GILD will be selling a lot of Harvoni/Solvadi to treat the largest blood-born disease infection rate from, as best as I can tell from reading different sources, the world. With a P/E hovering around 12 and all that cash being thrown onto their books, I think the long-term outlook is bright. I'm beginning to believe that the market is not counting on any large increase in sales from Harvoni/Solvadi, which it may not. From my reading, it looks like governments and insurance companies are grouping their patients by risk and once the most urgent cases are cured, then they'll move on to the next group and so on. The large expense of R&D and acquisitions to bring them to market is already a sunk cost. All that's left is the comparatively small production costs. That steady stream of cash over the next few years give GILD a lot of room to pay the dividend and for their next round of products.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan