Are Historical Div Increases an Indicator of Future Ability to Increase?

[EricL]

(06-02-2015, 02:58 PM)800peace Wrote: All great points! I suppose there's two problems in dividend policy when it comes to dividend growth investors... 1) Company is increasing only due to catering, and 2) Company has the ability to increase, but is not increasing. The first problem would have to be solved with good due-diligence. The second problem could be solved by looking at historical increases.

I'm still holding on the position that magnitude of past increases isn't necessarily a good indicator of magnitude of future increases, (key word "magnitude"). A multi-decade history of increases is an indication there will be increases, but not the magnitude of the increase.

I agree completely. At some point you need earnings/cash flow growth or the payout ratio gets to unsustainable levels that leads to either a cut, freeze, or much lower growth rate going forward.

Historical cases in point: PBI, NUE, DRI, WM, LEG, MAT, TUP.