(01-08-2015, 11:37 AM)cbroncos Wrote:(01-19-2014, 07:40 PM)Kerim Wrote: As I think I've said elsewhere, I'm not sure that I'd buy F at today's prices. Maybe. But at $9.00 per share, real earnings, and the new Fusion just released, it felt like a pretty safe buy!
I don't think we ever saw $9.00 in 2014 and I doubt we will see it in 2015. What price did you get in at?
I bought my shares for $8.99 each on July 24, 2012, and have never (yet) regretted the purchase.
I just updated my spreadsheet on F however, and am not sure I'd touch it at $15 and above. I've said before that with a cyclical stock like F, I need a much larger margin of safety than I'd need with, say, a consumer staples company. Yesterday's raise was very nice, and with it, Ford sports a very attractive initial yield of almost 3.9 percent. But earnings are languishing and as a result the payout ratio has already climbed to about 50 percent in the four years since the dividend was re-initiated.
2015 earnings projections are pretty good, but with an automaker, those estimates need to be taken with an especially giant-sized grain of salt. And even if they are realized, the dividend growth rate is going to slow way down starting next year, I imagine.
So, while I still like Ford a ton as a company, and will happily continue to hold my shares, I'd need to see some combination of much better earnings or a much better valuation before I'd consider buying more shares.
Just my 2 cents!