08-22-2013, 03:30 PM
Why so gloomy, Tom? 
It really depends how you cook the numbers here.
In the Q2 earnings statement, they revised full year guidance of adjusted EPS to a range of $2.36 to $2.41. Taking the low end of that range -- $2.36 -- and using the 80 percent target, you get a dividend of 47 cents per quarter.
However, if you look at full year 2013, with two payouts of 44 cents each, you could raise to 50 cents for the remaining two distributions in 2013 to get a total payout in 2013 of $1.88, which is just about exactly 80 percent of the $2.36 expected adjusted EPS.
I assume they are mostly looking forward, though, and would not account for the lower dividends in the first half of the year in this thinking. Nonetheless, my official prediction here is going to be 50 cents. $2.36 is the low end of the range, after all. If they do better than that, the 80 percent target gives them more room to play with.
It really depends how you cook the numbers here.
In the Q2 earnings statement, they revised full year guidance of adjusted EPS to a range of $2.36 to $2.41. Taking the low end of that range -- $2.36 -- and using the 80 percent target, you get a dividend of 47 cents per quarter.
However, if you look at full year 2013, with two payouts of 44 cents each, you could raise to 50 cents for the remaining two distributions in 2013 to get a total payout in 2013 of $1.88, which is just about exactly 80 percent of the $2.36 expected adjusted EPS.
I assume they are mostly looking forward, though, and would not account for the lower dividends in the first half of the year in this thinking. Nonetheless, my official prediction here is going to be 50 cents. $2.36 is the low end of the range, after all. If they do better than that, the 80 percent target gives them more room to play with.