Correction, or Worse?

[ken-do-nim]

I believe where we are in this stage of the correction is January 2022. January 2022 hurt like hell, but things kept going down for another 9 months. The question here is how long is the downturn? Here are the storm clouds I see:

• tariffs!
  
• reciprocal tariffs!
  
• agriculture & construction worker drain due to deportations
  
• housing starts go way down due to worker drain and lumber/steel tariffs. Housing remains out of reach for most Americans
  
• international boycotts of US goods
  
• international move away from US currency
  
• less international travel to the US
  
• downgrading of US credit rating as deficit grows (Trump's first term had the 3rd largest deficit growth of any presidential term, and the other two had wars to fight)
  
• consumer confidence drop
  
• inflation rising
  
• unemployment rising, both due to the federal worker cuts and due to the slowing economy
  
• the Fed unable to cut rates to stave off unemployment due to the inflation. May even have to raise rates.
  
• Social Security is expected to start missing payments in 30-90 days (after none for 90 years)
  
• But the biggest, baddest of them all is the Republican charge to cutting or eliminating Affordable Care, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. For me personally if Medicaid is cut then my son loses his home. If he comes back home, I probably lose my job to care for him. Similarly, it would be game over for many other middle age workers now thrust into caretaker roles for the elderly and disabled. Take them out of the workforce, and we are looking at Great Depression part II.
  
• Undetermined: what is the effect on the economy of getting rid of the Department of Education? Denying climate change? Lowered homeland security staffing? (Angering Hamas while lowering Homeland security is just inviting 9/11 part II). Trampling people's rights to protest?
  

Time to bottom for the 1929 stock market crash was 30 months.
Time to bottom for the 2008 great recession was 18 months.
Time to bottom for the 2022 market correction was 10 months.

I think we could quite possibly slide/stagnate all the way to the 2026 midterms. A blue wave could send the market back up.