01-21-2024, 09:23 PM
(01-20-2024, 08:17 AM)rayray Wrote:(01-14-2024, 09:33 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:(01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote:(01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.
I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.
Sure that's a great point. Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year. Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year. However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders. That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.
And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day. Admittedly the P/E is 116.
So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.
Don't forget to look at the F/PE's--that's important too--when F/PE is lower than PE it's usually good
Unreliable though. Lemme see ... TSLA has a current P/E of 68, forward of 56, so that's good, except ... it's almost always wrong.
12/31/2022 - the p/e was 38, with a forward of 24. Did they hit it? No, on 3/32/2023, the p/e was 57, with a forward of 54. Did they hit it? No, on 6/30/2023, the p/e was 77, with a forward of 76. Did they hit it? Yes, on 9/30/2023, the p/e was 71, with a forward of 55. Did they hit it? No, because it's 68 today. Chances are they won't hit the 56 that's forecast.