05-26-2014, 03:13 PM
Thanks very much for the detailed thoughts, DW.
I don't think Target is even in the same ballpark as Sears. I think that except for my long term concern about headwinds for brinks and mortar retail, I'd be loading up on TGT shares as one of the more obvious opportunities among DG stocks right now. There's little you could do to convince me to even give shares of Sears a look.
I think that the headwinds that I mentioned are real, but I don't yet know what weight to give them. If they are of small magnitude and it will be a slow, decades-long movement, then there should be little hesitation to take advantage and load up at these depressed prices. If the shift to online is stronger and faster, then I might be inclined to not add to my bricks and mortar retail at all.
I don't agree that TGT could just add some programmers and take any noticeable market share from Amazon. Amazon is light years ahead and they sell an array of products that Target could only dream of. People have a deep online relationship with Amazon.
Anyway, I'm still mulling all of this over. I am very tempted to grab more shares of TGT at the prices presented now, and if it goes lower still I'll be even more tempted (especially given the relative dearth of obvious opportunities). I suspect I am overreacting a bit about the online threat, but don't think it can be ignored either.
Thanks for helping me think it through.
I don't think Target is even in the same ballpark as Sears. I think that except for my long term concern about headwinds for brinks and mortar retail, I'd be loading up on TGT shares as one of the more obvious opportunities among DG stocks right now. There's little you could do to convince me to even give shares of Sears a look.
I think that the headwinds that I mentioned are real, but I don't yet know what weight to give them. If they are of small magnitude and it will be a slow, decades-long movement, then there should be little hesitation to take advantage and load up at these depressed prices. If the shift to online is stronger and faster, then I might be inclined to not add to my bricks and mortar retail at all.
I don't agree that TGT could just add some programmers and take any noticeable market share from Amazon. Amazon is light years ahead and they sell an array of products that Target could only dream of. People have a deep online relationship with Amazon.
Anyway, I'm still mulling all of this over. I am very tempted to grab more shares of TGT at the prices presented now, and if it goes lower still I'll be even more tempted (especially given the relative dearth of obvious opportunities). I suspect I am overreacting a bit about the online threat, but don't think it can be ignored either.
Thanks for helping me think it through.