I look at trends for stocks that struggle to give some evidence the company or industry is likely to be worth holding. I need some reasonable amount of total return. Stocks like IBM, T and the tobacco stocks I have checked look like poor holds for a long time now. Doesn't mean they can't perform better going forward, but IMO it makes it less likely. I have done some swing trades in most of the above. They seem range bound and so far the dividend community rescues them they get extremely cheap.
I back test most any stock I intend to hold. Especially before I would make it a core positions. All my stocks don't have to outperform the index, but if they only provide half the return for many years, I can find an alternative. If MO were to hit 70, or even 60 again then maybe the the fundamental story has changed for the long-term. I held PFE for over 20 years before I back tested it. My total return was under 5% for all those years. Then came COVID and maybe they have turned a corner. In any case I held the stock ten years too long. My patience became stubborness. Hindsight is 20/20 but almost any aristocrat would have been a far better investment.
I back test most any stock I intend to hold. Especially before I would make it a core positions. All my stocks don't have to outperform the index, but if they only provide half the return for many years, I can find an alternative. If MO were to hit 70, or even 60 again then maybe the the fundamental story has changed for the long-term. I held PFE for over 20 years before I back tested it. My total return was under 5% for all those years. Then came COVID and maybe they have turned a corner. In any case I held the stock ten years too long. My patience became stubborness. Hindsight is 20/20 but almost any aristocrat would have been a far better investment.