(04-02-2022, 03:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I will let this argument go when tobacco even sniffs the SPY return on a 10yr back test. Tobacco looks better today as a scared market heads for dividends. I completely get it dividends are great if you are actually spending them now. If just a drip it's just part of the total return they fail at delivering.
I am not invested Kerim so I won't hate it if you are right some time soon, but you have a LOT of ground to make up. MO at 70+ and SPY stays right here would make me admit I am wrong on a 10yr back test.
I'm not sure why back-testing would be your standard here, or what ground I'd have to make up. Entry price is (almost) everything. I didn't buy BTI ten years ago. I bought it (mostly) in Q4 2021. Since my purchase(s), my BTI shares are up about 16 percent, without even counting the dividends I've already received (maybe another 1.5 percent of my initial outlay). The S&P is up about 2 percent in the same period.
Sure, that is a tiny blink of time, and who knows how well I will ultimately fare versus the S&P over a long time period. But if you wait until a ten year back-test looks favorable, you're likely buying your stock at relatively high prices. When good stocks are beat up, there's good money to be made. But that's often when they look worst on backwards-looking metrics.