01-29-2022, 12:06 AM
Just dusting this thread off to note that MO just completed its third consecutive full calendar year with actual earnings well below the dividend. For 2021, the dividend payout ($3.48) was waaay more than twice actual earnings ($1.34). Yeah, yeah, I know that "adjusted" earnings look robust, once you've factored out the never ending costs of recent missteps. And that the dividends are less than those "adjusted" earnings. But it is actual earnings that matter.
On the other hand, it does appear that revenues are holding up (more or less the same in 2020 and 2021 at $26 billion). And cash on hand has actually risen considerably from 2020 to 2021 (which I really don't understand how that's possible given the disparity between earnings and dividends I'm fixated on). And the JUUL and other drags have to lighten up eventually? I guess?
I'm still holding all my shares. Fenders is right that it would be hard income to replace. But I'm watching this on more carefully than I even have before.
On the other hand, it does appear that revenues are holding up (more or less the same in 2020 and 2021 at $26 billion). And cash on hand has actually risen considerably from 2020 to 2021 (which I really don't understand how that's possible given the disparity between earnings and dividends I'm fixated on). And the JUUL and other drags have to lighten up eventually? I guess?
I'm still holding all my shares. Fenders is right that it would be hard income to replace. But I'm watching this on more carefully than I even have before.