01-09-2022, 10:13 AM
(01-09-2022, 08:53 AM)fenders53 Wrote: When it's working it's working. The few people I know who have had success trading for years have one thing in common. They cut their losses quick when a trade goes bad. You don't need to understand why the market seems irrational that day. No stubbornly riding a stock into the dirt waiting to get out ahead on picks like an actual investment. You don't have to defend a trade to the death.
The algos can make money being right only 55% of the time. A little tougher for humans as the 45% can get you if emotion enters the equation. For me it's been about timing. The overall market is on your side or it isn't for months at a time. If you made bullish ST bets in 2021 on the can't lose 2020 growth stocks you got your azz handed to you.
Trading was very similar to buying and selling horses. You think you're buying something you can make money on but don't really know until you get it home and swing a leg over it a few times. Figure on picking wrong 20-30% of the time and when you do, get them the heck out of the barn - they're taking up space that could be making you money and every day you have them is another day of feed, labor, etc., costs.
Not terribly different when trading stocks. Have a thesis for everything you buy. Once you've owned it for a bit, if your thesis is wrong, get rid of it and put your money someplace where it can turn into more money. Figure on being wrong plenty of times and be humble enough to know it and get out.
Used to do the same with commodities and options. Have a bunch going on at a time and if you see something not going how you thought, get out.
None of this is complicated. Doesn't mean it's easy either - it takes plenty of work. But it's not filled with mind-blowing "tricks."