An Ark is derived from the Latin word arca, meaning “chest,” which is akin to the Latin verb arcēre, meaning “to hold off or defend.” Noah's biblical ARK was built to provide security, buffett the waves, hold back the flood and defend within it - It's precious Cargo.
Excerpt: Howard Marks MEMOS - July 30 2021
For a piece of information to be desirable, it has to satisfy two criteria: it has to be
important, and it has to be knowable. – Warren Buffett
Regular readers of my memos know that Oaktree and I approach macro forecasts with a high degree
of skepticism. In fact, one of the six tenets of Oaktree’s investment philosophy states flatly that we
don’t base our investment decisions on macro forecasts..........
The reason for this is simple: to use Buffett’s terminology, we’re convinced the macro future
isn’t knowable......
Many investors think their job requires them to develop a macro outlook and invest according to its
dictates. Successful stock pickers or real estate buyers often make pronouncements regarding the
macro outlook, even in the absence of evidence linking their investment success to accurate macro
forecasts. Nonetheless, since macro developments are so influential, many people think it’s
downright irresponsible to ignore them when investing. Yet:
• Most macro forecasts are likely to turn out to be either (a) unhelpful consensus expectations
or (b) non-consensus forecasts that are rarely right.
• I can count on one hand the investors I know who successfully base their decisions on macro
forecasts. The rest invest from the bottom up, one investment at a time. They buy when they
think they’ve found bargains and sell things they consider overpriced – mostly without
reference to the macro outlook.
• It may be hard to admit – to yourself or to others – that you don’t know what the macro
future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty, agnosticism is probably wiser
than self-delusion.
Ark Funds.... (They are anything but Arks) Live by macro momentum, Die by macro momentum!!
I have met many a Cathie Woods in my life - It NEVER EVER ends well.
JMHO
- Scoot
It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to
think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know
exactly what’s going on. – Amos Tversky
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure
that just ain’t so. – Mark Twain
Excerpt: Howard Marks MEMOS - July 30 2021
For a piece of information to be desirable, it has to satisfy two criteria: it has to be
important, and it has to be knowable. – Warren Buffett
Regular readers of my memos know that Oaktree and I approach macro forecasts with a high degree
of skepticism. In fact, one of the six tenets of Oaktree’s investment philosophy states flatly that we
don’t base our investment decisions on macro forecasts..........
The reason for this is simple: to use Buffett’s terminology, we’re convinced the macro future
isn’t knowable......
Many investors think their job requires them to develop a macro outlook and invest according to its
dictates. Successful stock pickers or real estate buyers often make pronouncements regarding the
macro outlook, even in the absence of evidence linking their investment success to accurate macro
forecasts. Nonetheless, since macro developments are so influential, many people think it’s
downright irresponsible to ignore them when investing. Yet:
• Most macro forecasts are likely to turn out to be either (a) unhelpful consensus expectations
or (b) non-consensus forecasts that are rarely right.
• I can count on one hand the investors I know who successfully base their decisions on macro
forecasts. The rest invest from the bottom up, one investment at a time. They buy when they
think they’ve found bargains and sell things they consider overpriced – mostly without
reference to the macro outlook.
• It may be hard to admit – to yourself or to others – that you don’t know what the macro
future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty, agnosticism is probably wiser
than self-delusion.
Ark Funds.... (They are anything but Arks) Live by macro momentum, Die by macro momentum!!
I have met many a Cathie Woods in my life - It NEVER EVER ends well.
JMHO
- Scoot
It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to
think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know
exactly what’s going on. – Amos Tversky
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure
that just ain’t so. – Mark Twain