01-02-2022, 03:33 PM
I am entertained when I see some of my prognostications on the forum that prove ridiculous in only six months. I've dusted off my crystal ball and will share my top ten. I'll try to not be so vague that I can't be wrong. Join in with your own if you care to, or at least disagree with a few of mine.
1. No real market crash this year, but I believe straight up is over. I give the market a 70% chance of ending the year positive, though I think it might be under a 10% gain. I think the market will be choppier than last with many sector swings.
2. Two small interest rate hikes, three max, then the FED gets cold feet. Inflation tames itself well enough anyway by the third quarter.
3. Big tech is still unstoppable, it finishes up on the year.
4. Small Cap indexes will recover soon, maybe beat SPY for the year.
5. Oil will see $110 by summer, then settle back to $80 by winter and more supply trickles online. Oil stocks may not run a lot higher, but they will print money.
6. Traders may have fun with the more speculative re-opening stocks like cruise lines but those balance sheets are in trouble.
7. I like restaurants and ABNB to outperform SPY.
8. SPACs have one more run, then only a few will live on and be relevant. SOFI and a few others have a chance.
9. I will retire by June 1rst and go fishing more in cool places, if I have to rent my house out, pick up cans in the ditch and live in a cheap RV. Yeah, it’s that important.
10. The Packers will not win the Superbowl.
1. No real market crash this year, but I believe straight up is over. I give the market a 70% chance of ending the year positive, though I think it might be under a 10% gain. I think the market will be choppier than last with many sector swings.
2. Two small interest rate hikes, three max, then the FED gets cold feet. Inflation tames itself well enough anyway by the third quarter.
3. Big tech is still unstoppable, it finishes up on the year.
4. Small Cap indexes will recover soon, maybe beat SPY for the year.
5. Oil will see $110 by summer, then settle back to $80 by winter and more supply trickles online. Oil stocks may not run a lot higher, but they will print money.
6. Traders may have fun with the more speculative re-opening stocks like cruise lines but those balance sheets are in trouble.
7. I like restaurants and ABNB to outperform SPY.
8. SPACs have one more run, then only a few will live on and be relevant. SOFI and a few others have a chance.
9. I will retire by June 1rst and go fishing more in cool places, if I have to rent my house out, pick up cans in the ditch and live in a cheap RV. Yeah, it’s that important.
10. The Packers will not win the Superbowl.