12-21-2021, 10:43 AM
(12-21-2021, 06:42 AM)cemanuel Wrote: I'm with Eric here. Revenues and cash flows are continuing to increase. The balance sheet isn't the fortress it was in 2018 before Juul and Chronis but it's still solid.
This has my "quick look" chart for the most important metric over time; revenues: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/s...evenue-eps 2021 looks like it may end up being flat/stagnant over 2020 but provided the patent issue with IQOS gets worked out which I expect will happen, I believe it will continue growing cash flows over time.
As I do with everything I own; once MO releases its AR I'll dig into it. I may see something that worries me. If so I may change my opinion but for now I'll hold.
I will be selling it in my Roth as I want it to be growthier. I have a target sell price of $50 but depending on the market I may sell tomorrow after ex-div, as of today to pick up WSM and BBY. This dip is a nice opportunity. Just wish I had the IRA available now.
While I don't see MO's dividend cut as imminent, the question is, can MO's balance sheet withstand another bad acquisition or another legal judgment against them, etc? I think they're on the edge.
I felt similarly about T in April of 2021. I didn't think a dividend cut was on the horizon when I sold, but its debt was high, they had a record of mismanagement, its Simply Safe Dividend score had just been knocked down a few pegs, and I thought that any additional missteps would put it over the edge.
The only difference in my treatment of my T position then and my MO position now are the tax ramifications. With T, it was in my IRA and I had no big gains to worry about.